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Kyler Murray in 2025: dare to "float like a butterfly and sting like a bee."
By Walter Mitchell
AP Photo/Matt Slocum
The problem for Kyler Murray is that too often he does not float the pocket the way Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold do. He won't buy the extra second or stand strong and take the hit that enables the best QBs, like Tom Brady, to win the middle of the football field. Brady was the master floater and dime thrower between the hashes in the nick of time. The best Cardinals to ever do it was Kurt Warner.
Notice, in terms of winning the middle of the field, the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks all pay superb attention to their slot WRs (Nacua, Atwell, McCaffrey, Pearsall, Aiyuk, Smith-Njigba and Kupp). In 6 years, Kyler Murray has not developed prolific connections with his slot WRs.
Christian Kirk didn't want to catch balls over the middle, so he only ran a steady diet of deep corners, go-routes, seam bombs and cross corners. Kyler never established consistent go-to chemistry with Andy Isabella, Rondale Moore and --- not yet with Greg Dortch.
Thus, the Cardinals, with Kyler Murray as QB, have yet to show a means for exploiting the middle often enough via the pass, something that is made to order in a run heavy play-action offense like Petzing's. Why? The linebackers have to honor the run, first and foremost.
Another deficient area of the Cardinals' passing game that needs to be improved is the QB's propensity to throw under the sticks on 3rd downs and under the goal line when in the red zone. Throwing habitually under the conversion lines or, even worse, catching the shotgun snap, taking one step and throwing long, lobbing fade passes out of bounds --- has to be curtailed.
I and others started calling this deficiency the "3rd and Give Up Offense."
However, Kyler's best two games in the pocket under Petzing were, imo, versus the Eagles in PHI in 2023 and versus the Jets at home in 2024. In those impressive wins, Kyler floated the pocket to create clear passing lanes and stood in there and took the hits when necessary to make perfectly timed throws on a dime.
At PHI, down 21-6 at the half, Kyler stood strong in the middle of that fierce Eagles' pass rush and threw 3 TDs to Michael Carter, James Conner and the big one to tie the game at 28-28 to Michael Wilson where Kyler floated and bought that extra second.
At State Farm last season, how about the way he bounced back up after getting steamrolled from behind by the Jets' edge rusher Quincy Williams and two plays later he floated the pocket and delivered a dime TD pass to Marvin Harrison Jr. to put the team up 21-9.
Kyler finished off that beautiful 31-9 home win over the Jets by completing 22 of 24 passes for 266 yards and 1 TD. Plus, in that game he ran for 2 TDs.
The point is --- Kyler has it in him --- but he needs to flip on the switch and keep it on.
This season Kyler has to be unflinchingly daring in order to impose his will on the opposing defenses. Kyler has it in him to "float like a butterfly and sting like a bee." (Muhammed Ali)
Plus, the way that Kyler can always put enormous pressure on defenses (and slow down the pass rush in the process) is by running right through a hole in the pocket straight up the middle of field, like Jalen Hurtz did so brilliantly against the Chiefs in SB LIX.
Kyler running up the middle is every opposing DC's greatest worry. I'll never forget the trepidation on Nick Saban's face when prepping Alabama to play Oklahoma and defend Heisman trophy winner Kyler Murray in the 2018 college championship semi-finals. Saban lamented that "you can't keep just one spy on Kyler Murray, because he will run right by one spy. We really need two spies, and even that might not be good enough. "
Kyler has indicated that he wants to run the ball more this season. Hopefully, he is fully cognizant of what opposing defensive coordinators dread the most about trying to defend him. And this time around, more than ever, Kyler needs to make them pay.
And as for doing a better job of attacking the middle of the field via play-action, Kyler should bring back RPOs (run-pass options) this season. Imagine being an inside linebacker when Kyler has the football tucked in the #6 of James Conner's jersey and #4 Greg Dortch or #18 Marvin Harrison jr. is running a quick slant behind him. That's called keeping a linebacker in no-man's land. Whom does the linebacker commit to? JC? GD or MHJ? K1?
In my opinion, NFL RPO's are the equivalent of NBA pick and rolls. Quite frequently, it's nearly impossible to defend every option on the play. Talk about putting pressure on a defense.
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"Thus, the Cardinals, with Kyler Murray as QB, have yet to show a means for exploiting the middle often enough via the pass, something that is made to order in a run heavy play-action offense like Petzing's"
ReplyDeleteI've always thought that shorter QBs prefer to throw through windows for the obvious lack of vision over lineman reason and for not wanting to take the chance of getting their passes batted down trying to throw over tall lineman.
I found this study on batted passes to be interesting.
https://www.stat.cmu.edu/cmsac/sure/2024/showcase/football/report.html#methods
Hey Jethro, thanks for the comment and the excellent link to cmu's study on batted passes. I believe that most QBs in the NFL regardless of height, when throwing over the middle, prefer to float into an open passing lane so they can deliver the ball on a rope. Another factor is that offensive lines in pass pro can often create clear passing lanes for their QB when the influence and block rushers sideways. Kyler's low batted passes rate is commendable. But it could also be a function of how the majority of his passes are short and the longer ones are often wide of the hash marks. Plus, as time has gone on, it seems like Kyler is lobbing more passes than he did during his best seasons. Tom Brady was 6-4 and he was a float the pocket master because clear passing lanes are the key to sustained success. Even 6-4 QB pass in front of lines that average 6-4 across.
ReplyDeleteAll that makes sense. Kyler said this.
Delete"Honestly, they say, Year 2 (post-knee injury) is the best year, and honestly how I feel right now is as if it never happened. I do feel like I have to run more next year, I'm open to running more next year, just because it's such a weapon, you know, it's such a weapon. Like when I hand the ball off obviously I hand the ball off to James (Conner), I hand off to Trey (Benson), we're a very good rushing team, which is a great thing. But when Lamar (Jackson) hands the ball off everybody is like 'Ahh', like you can relax, Josh (Allen) hands the ball off, 'Ahh', you know what I mean? So I think for us, part of the emphasis going into next season is conceptually on time, I feel I'm one of the best in the league."
Kyler was really frustrating DC's during that 7-0 start in 2021. I'm hoping this entire season looks a lot like the first half of 2021.
Excellent context, thank you Jethro!
DeleteMurray's consistent inconsistencies have not improved in 7 seasons. Those inconsistencies, especially under pressure and when throwing over the middle, have held him back. His ability to improve his pocket presence, decision-making, and consistency will determine whether he can elevate his game to the next level. Too bad he doesn't want and is not required to be coached by anyone other than himself. Some argue that his development as a passer has stagnated, particularly his ability to perform under pressure and make advanced reads.
ReplyDeleteLast season , he did show some (not enough) improved packet presence and drifting to avoid pressure-Miami and Jets games come to mind. I've also noticed Murray has slowed down his dropback and refined his footwork (West Coast offense rhythm), which has contributed to better rhythm and timing when going through his progressions.
He promised to run more this season which might overcome his poor throwing decisions when under duress but that won't make him a more accomplished thrower of the football in those situations.
Every player coming into the NFL is extremely talented. And regardless of the never-ending debates about NFL Combine performances, they are top-tier athletes operating on an entirely different wavelength compared to other humans. Even so, being blessed in that regard doesn’t guarantee success at football’s highest level.
ReplyDeleteWe can talk and watch tape all day, but very few, even those inside the league, can ascertain with high precision the character, heart and drive of those who aspire for gridiron greatness.
I believe a lot of success of it comes down to the mental toughness and mindset of the players. Those are tough things to measure. Kyler Murray hasn't shown me nor the great football mind, Greg Cosell, that he has the mental toughness and mindset to put his team mates on his back and overcome difficult circumstances, competition and set backs during an important game. Kyler shrinks not elevates his play from adversity.
This year he gets the chance to prove he can finish. Dan Bickley and Vince Marotta had a great discussion going yesterday about the rankings of NFC West QBs in 2025. Three of the 4 NFL pundits they turned to have the rankings: 1-Stafford; 2-Purdy; 3-Murray; 4-Darnold and the 4th pundit had it 1-Stafford, 2-Purdy, 3-Darnold, 4-Murray. Bick and Vince concluded that if Kyler doesn't climb the QB ladder in the division this year, it's time for a QB change.
DeleteKM's play is, for me, the #1 reason to watch this season's squad. No other player's contribution will dictate the future of this franchise-good or bad. Ranking the NFCW QBs-Darnold is 4th on my list. He's gonna get his ass lit on fire behind that OL without a great play caller to avoid it.
DeleteThey just had an interview tape re run on KTAR. Dude just doesn't have it. I wouldn't follow this guy to the park for free ice cream. Other players see it and when he makes excuses about other players not being able to read his emotions and his drive its on him to change that. That interview left me with a lot of questions. I really want him to be the guy but darn, dude can't do an interview without being I and I and team needs to adjust to me. Maybe I am putting words in his mouth but that's what I heard. I am so hopeful he turns the corner but if he doesn't show top 10 performance and consistency let's move on.
DeleteHate to break it to you, Kualla, but he never will be top 10. The sooner we all collectively, and especially the FO, realize that, the closer we'll be to the playoffs and a SB.
DeleteKyler had the speed and maneuverability to put up amazing rushing numbers, but I honestly don't think he actually wants to run. As a smaller QB, especially one who blew out his knee, I think he's terrified to be past the LOS where he's much less protected. Compare him to others players, such as Lamar, who is more than happy to run, and the stats are stark. An average of 881 to 503 rushing yards.
ReplyDelete