Will the Cardinals' defense get their hands on the football much more often this season?

By Walter Mitchell

photo: azcardinals.com

Ever since Jonathan Gannon and Nick Rallis took over as the Cardinals' head coach and defensive coordinator, one aspect of their defense that has been conspicuously subpar --- has been the defense's lack of interceptions and pass breakups. 

Some of you may recall from past articles that I like to apply what former NBA coach and color commentator Hubie Brown describes as the greatest barometer for team defenses --- as in ---how many times do the defenders get their hands on the ball. 

In the NBA they add up the number of steals and deflections in order to calculate the pressure barometer. Thus, in the NFL we can add up the number of interceptions and pass breakups.

Which I have done for the 2024 season --- each team gets a point for each interception and a point for each pass breakup and the sum of those tallies is the DPB as in Defensive Pressure Barometer. Ties are separated by which team have to more interceptions. 

2024 NFL Defensive Pressure Barometer (Interceptions + Pass Breakups = DPD)

1. PHI: 13 + 50 = 63

2. DET: 16 + 46 = 62

3. HOU: 19 + 41 = 60

4. MIN: 24 + 34 = 58

5. BAL: 12 + 46 = 58

6. SF: 11 + 46 = 57

7. NO: 14 = 42 = 56 

8. SEA: 13 + 39 = 52

9. CIN: 15 + 36 = 51

10. LAC: 15 + 36 = 51

11. CLE: 4 + 47 = 51

12. LAR: 13 + 37 = 50

13. CHI: 11 + 39 = 50

14. DAL: 13 + 35 = 48

15. JAC: 6 + 42 + 48

 16. DEN: 15 + 32 = 47

17. LV: 10 + 37 = 47

18. PIT: 17 + 29 = 46

19. IND: 16 + 30 = 46

20. NE: 7 + 39 = 46

21. GB: 17 + 28 - 45

22. ATL: 12 + 33 = 45

23. TB: 7 + 38 = 45

24. BUF: 16 + 27 = 43

25. WAS: 7 + 36 - 43

26. CAR: 9 + 32 = 41

27. MIA: 10 + 30 = 40

28. NYJ: 7 + 32= 39

29. KC: 13 + 25 = 38

30. NYG: 5 + 31 = 36

31. ARI: 9 + 26 = 35

32. TEN: 11 + 19 = 30

What these numbers indicate is that the Cardinals, despite having a slightly above average DVOA, had one of the softest coverage schemes in the NFL. Soft coverages were one of the major reasons why the Cardinals' defense had such difficulty getting off the field:

Walter B J Mitchell
@WBJMItch
Cardinals' 3rd down opponent conversion percentage since Jonathan Gannon took over: 2023: 32nd --- 47.3% 2024: 28th --- 43.8% 2025: ? Hopefully significantly better.
Quote
Kyle Odegard
@Kyle_Odegard
Cardinals' defensive DVOA since Jonathan Gannon took over 2023: 32nd 2024: 14th 2025 projection: 7th

A potentially auspicious harbinger for the 2025 Cardinals?

Pre-Season DPB for JG's Cardinals:

2023: 2 + 4 = 6
2024: 1 + 6 = 7
2025: 2 + 10 =12 (tied with the Patriots for 5th best in NFL this pre-season)

What players came up with them?

Interceptions:

* Darren Hall --- vs Chiefs
* Kitan Crawford --- vs Chiefs

Pass Breakups:

* Elijah Jones --- 3
* Darren Hall --- 2
* Kei'Trel Clark --- 1
* Denzel Burke --- 1
* Steven Gilmore --- 1
* Vi Jones --- 1
* Jaylon Jones --- 1 (claimed by CHI)

Now it's their turn:

* Garrett Williams
* Max Melton
* Will Johnson
* Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
* Owen Pappoe
* Kitan Crawford

Myth: A stronger pass rush should always make interceptions and pass breakups easier.

It certainly should. However, if the pass coverage downfield isn't tight, odds are the QB pressures won't matter all that much.

Nick Rallis has been lauded as the "mad scientist" for dialing up exotic blitz packages. He's very good and creative at it. In fact, Rallis dialed up the #4 most frequent blitz pressures in the NFL. The problem is the coverages behind the pressures were not aggressive or sticky enough, which is why the Cardinals finished #27 in blitz win percentages.

Case in Point:

Remember in Minnesota the 4th and 6 the Vikings' offense had late in the game behind by 6 points? Nick Rallis' double A gap blitz package got very good pressure straight up the middle on Sam Darnold, but no Cardinal in the soft zone behind the blitz covered Justin Jefferson. Easy-peasy pitch and catch 4th down conversion which helped the Vikings go on moments later score the game-winning TD.

Do you believe in the importance of DPBs?

Let's keep an eye this season on the Cardinals' DPBs and how high the rank at getting their hands on the football. The Cardinals need to try their best to turn this defensive weakness into a strength.




Comments

  1. VegasCards1August 29, 2025 at 11:45 PM

    The team was so afraid to get burned or penalized that they gave up so many easy catches. Hope some sticky aggression is in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  2. RedrunAugust 30, 2025 at 6:34 AM

    Soft Coverage has been a staple for Cardinals DB's for 10+ years now - we can always hope for more aggressive man to man sticky coverage. But it is hope!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. JethroBodineAugust 30, 2025 at 9:41 AM

    Excellent article Walt. Also, I wanted to mention that my response is from a position of learning not critiquing.

    Aren't soft or "prevent" defenses used to avoid surrendering chunk yard plays? In theory, a bend don't break D should force opposing offenses into longer drives, more total plays and more chance for mistakes like forced fumbles. Cards were 7th in the league in forced fumbles last season. Also, when a DC doesn't have the talent level he needs to create pressure on a QB wouldn't forcing more plays per drive and trying to force your opponent into making mistakes help level the playing field?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Walter MitchellAugust 30, 2025 at 12:49 PM

      Zones when played properly can be sticky when the players play man to man versus the receiver in their zone. Our guys give way too much cushion and receivers cross the faces of our underneath defenders, like they are cardboard figures. In the NFL you don't want to concede anything. The object for any defense is to get off the field asap. The other thing is --- when. you give opposing QBs rhythm and momentum; you are giving them their dream scenarios --- this is why we get beat too often by mediocre and/or young QBs.

      Delete
  4. Since 61August 30, 2025 at 10:20 AM

    Injuries to more veteran CBs and a weak ILB group provides little confidence that this young position group is ready for primetime. They do have the luxury of a few tune ups/easier games before the back to back division games.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Flash87August 30, 2025 at 10:32 AM

    Some good analytics Walter. I'm wondering how much that soft coverage is affected by safeties coming up to buffer bad linebacker play. Gannon traditionally likes to create pressure with four and five man fronts. This year he has the front personnel. See how things look different versus last few years.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Kyle LedbetterAugust 30, 2025 at 12:10 PM

    Remarkable that they are both:

    A: 30th in Pass Deflections
    B: Somehow ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs in that category

    I would expect the key to improvement starts with Garrett Williams this year

    ReplyDelete
  7. sneakyjobuAugust 31, 2025 at 7:57 AM

    The 2022-23 Eagles under JG allowed a 63% completion percentage(13th), 81.6 passer rating(3rd) but the key stat is 70 sacks(1st). The Cardinals actually allowed fewer rushing yds than the Eagles in 2022.

    Best case scenario: Can the Cardinals front 7 be disruptive enough to be middle of the road in pressure % and sacks to assist the zone heavy Cover 3 scheme and provide tighter coverage to then aid in PBU's? A JG scheme could work as we have seen with the '22 Eagles but what could be a more glaring issue is tightening up the front 7 rush defense. Also, better talent in the secondary will likely lead to more PBU's. Despite all of this, we could be looking at marginal defensive coaching without a high upside if this year does not improve significantly in the coverage. In other words, if our pass defense does not take a big step up this year then we know for sure that the JG/Rallis defensive pedigree is nothing better than bottom 15.

    ReplyDelete

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