Cardinals' Draft Pick Developments


by Walter Mitchell

Now that the Arizona Cardinals have 4 games under their belts this season, let's take a close look at how well the coaches have been developing Monti Ossenfort's 28 draft picks over the past three drafts.

2023 NFL Draft:

R1 - Paris Johnson Jr., T, Ohio St. --- starter at LT (3/4 games, knee) --- 73.0 --- currently ranked #15 T

Cardinals passed on Will Anderson Jr. and made us suffer through two years of the most underwhelming pass rushes in the NFL. That said, Paris Johnson Jr. has been a very good player who appears to be budding as a team leader. Coaches, imo, stifled his acclimation to the NFL and his initial growth by starting him at RT his rookie year. He's off to a solid start this season but there is concern about him missing his 3rd game in the last 6 due to a knee injury.

R2 - B.J. Ojulari, ED, LSU --- PUP (knee)

Add Ojulari to the list of injured players that Monti Ossenfort over the years has had a part in drafting. Passing on Brian Branch who was a far superior and far more productive player in the SEC than Ojulari and practically everyone else, was a glaring mistake. Ojulari showed flashes the first half of his rookie year with 4 sacks and then hit a wall about mid-season (0 sacks after). Unfortunately, he tore an ACL well over a year ago in training camp and is still on the PUP list. Has yet to start an NFL game.

R3 - Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse --- Slot CB (2 games, knee IR) --- 61.7

The injury risk for Garrett Williams was more acceptable in Round 3, He, when healthy, has already proven to be an outstanding, versatile zone coverage CB. His man coverage skills however are still developing. Losing him to the IR in year 3 is extremely frustrating.

R3 - Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford --- starter WR2 --- 58.1

Michael Wilson was a head-turner at the Senior Bowl, yet the rap on him as well was durability. He has played well when given a proper chance. But the offensive system appears to limit his targets. While he has missed a few games to injuries, he's bounced back quickly. Get him in a more pass-friendly system and his stock could soar. If the Cardinals are ever going to pass more, now seems like the time. 

R4 - Jon Gaines II, G, UCLA --- fullback, backup G --- 58.5

Oh, the irony. Jon Gaines II was an offensive stalwart at UCLA and freaking A he blows out a knee during his first pre-season. Gaines has worked hard to make it back as a swing C/G/FB. Still, imo, JGII has strong potential to be an NFL starter.

R5 - Clayton Tune, QB, Houston --- cut

Can the current offensive coaches develop QBs? The crazy thing is with regard to how low the bar has fallen in Arizona about QB expectations; there are fans who adamantly insist that Kyler Murray is playing well this season at 185.5 passing yards per game, 6 TDs and 3 ints. His 45.7 QBR is 24th. 

R5 - Owen Pappoe, LB, Auburn --- STs, 0 snaps on defense

OP's speed translates well to pass coverage, which he graded well in last season. This season he's been relegated to STs thus far (0 snaps on defense) and is one of the top STs players on the squad.

R6 - Kei'Trel Clark, CB, Louisville --- backup CB, 76 snaps --- 80.0 --- currently ranked #16 in coverage

KTC is a baller whom Brett Kollmann, since61 and I have been calling repeatedly for the coaches to play, but the coaches don't seem to want to commit to him and thus they will likely send him and his 80.0 grade right back to bench, as soon as possible.

R6 - Dante Stills, DT, West Virginia --- backup DT, 149 snaps --- 47.2

Dante Stills was an excellent 6th round steal. He flashes quickness versus the run and pass, which can lead to big stops or, on the flip side, to getting bulldozed sideways.

2024 NFL Draft:

R1 - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio St.--- starter WR1 --- 59.3

Marvin and his dad manipulated the 2024 NFL draft process, claiming Marv had nothing to prove and that his game tape could do the talking. Except that his game tape, upon closer review, suggested that he was going to have some difficulty adjusting his game to the NFL given how the sticky CBs from Notre Dame and others were blanketing him and how reluctant at times Marv looked at catching balls over the middle. The system for MHJ in Arizona was not ideal, given the WR touches are priority #3 and sometime #4 in the passing game and that Kyler Murray's chemistry and track records with his WRs have been underwhelming. In year two of the team's rebuild drafting a WR at #4 when they still had no bona fide edge rushers or lockdown man coverage corners was a luxury that was questionable. That said, if and when Marv gets his swag going, he could be a super tough WR to stop. 

R1 - Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri --- starter DT --- 35.5 (pec injury?)

D-Rob was a draft day reach because he is a tweener who either needs to trim down a little to play a fast edge or bulk up a little to play the 5-tech as a 34 DE. Losing him for the. majority of his rookie season to a calf injury was a bummer on all accounts. Even worse, Darius suffered the loss of his mom during the season. He's been working hard to make up for lost time this year. The coaches say they are pleased with his effort and despite his lack of production tackles, pressures and sacks-wise, he did seem to turn a corner versus the Seahawks yet left the game with what appears to be a pec injury. The young man has an attractive blend of size and athleticism, so maybe he'll be on the same career trajectory as former Cardinals' 2003 1st round pick, Calvin Pace.

R2 - Max Melton, CB, Rutgers --- starter at CB --- 44.9

Max Melton, due to his quick feet and recovery speed drew pre-draft raves from the likes of Nick Saban. Right now, he is the most talented man to man cover CB on the team and is learning how to hone his coverage techniques such as securing and maintaining strong leverage and looking back for the football when his receiver does. 

R3 - Trey Benson, RB, Florida St. --- backup turned starter at RB --- 62.3

Trey Benson has the size and breakaway speed that NFL teams covet, especially when he attacks the hole rather than dances around it. Wide zone blocking schemes can tend to make RBs stutter step as they look for the best crease. So that's part of his learning curve in the system. He has the ability to be a major factor in the passing game given his home run ability. The pick at the time felt like another luxury pick for a team lacking major defense talent, but now that James Conner unfortunately is out for the season, Trey Benson looks very eager to assume the role as the bell cow RB.

R3 - Isaiah Adams, G, Illinois --- starter at RG --- 41.6

One would imagine that Klayton Adams had a key hand in drafting Isaiah Adams and now that Klayton is gone, Isaiah is struggling to take his game to a higher level. Most of his blocks are good. But he's getting beat on a handful of blocks each game against defensive fronts that are attacking the gaps of the wide zone schemes. Isaiah has the talent to be a good, solid NFL guard. It's going to require time and patience.

R3 - Tip Reiman, TE, Illinois --- starter at TE2 (3/4 games, foot) --- 55.1

Excellent system fit for Tip Reiman in Arizona. He has the potential to be the best blocking TE in the NFL if and when he masters his technique and doesn't draw flags for being over-aggressive. It also appears that he is improving his route running and pass catching skills.

R3 - Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College --- backup CB, 0 snaps

Elijah missed his rookie season due to an ankle injury. This pre-season he was the best CB in man to man coverage, which is why it is surprising that the coaches haven't played him yet on defense. Nick Rallis has been meeting with him and has expressed how confident he is in Elijah when he gets his chance. Meanwhile, he's been playing very well on special teams. 

R4 - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech --- nickel S, 167 snaps --- 76.2 --- currently ranked #16 in coverage

The Rabbit has a chance to be one of Monti Ossenfort's very best picks given how savvy he is in pass coverages, both as a high safety and as a nickel cover CB. His tackling this season has been inconsistent thus far. Which is a tad surprising because this kid arrives at the football with bang. 

R5 - Xavier Thomas, ED, Clemson --- inactive 4 games

Xavier Thomas is a quick, high-motored edge who chases down QB with a burst. Very good value as a 5th round pick. Like last season, he could show some impressive flashes if and when he gets his chance. 

R5 - Christian Jones, T, Texas --- IR (knee)

The coaches have been wanting to groom Christian Jones as a swing tackle and possible heir apparent to Kelvin Beachum. He played much better at LT this pre-season than last, alas, before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Jones has the ability, imo, to be a solid starter at RT, if and when the opportunity arises. 

R6 - Tejhuan Palmer, WR, UAB --- practice squad

Tejhaun Palmer has above average size and sneaky speed, which he used on a couple of occasions in practice this pre-season on long TD passes from Jacoby Brissett. Right now, being a scout team WR and running a diverse set of routes is made to order for his potential development.

R7 - Jaden Davis, CB, Miami --- cut

Feisty slot CB who made one nice end zone interception before he injured a knee in training camp. 

2025 NFL Draft

R1 - Walter Nolen III, DT, Mississippi --- PUP (calf)

Unbelievable to think that for the second year in a row under the supervision of the Cardinals' training staff their 1st round defensive lineman incurred a major calf injury that would require months to heal. Coming off a stellar All-American season at Ole Miss, Walter Nolen III was being hailed as one of the biggest boom or bust prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft because of previous concerns about his practice habits. He has a rare chance to be groomed as a potential NFL star by NFL superstar Calais Campbell. Let's hope that Walter Nolen II's chance comes quickly. and that he will take full advantage of it.

R2 - Will Johnson, CB, Michigan --- third CB (2/4 games, knee) --- 77.9 - currently ranked #12 in coverage

Injury concerns were the main reason why Will Johnson dropped well into the 2nd round. After two excellent games in Weeks 1 and 2, Will has not practiced or played during Weeks 3 and 4. He was not placed on the IR, which likely means he could be returning to the practice field as soon as today. His zone coverage skills are outstanding and his early efforts in man coverage and tackling have been very encouraging. 

R3 - Jordan Burch, DE, Oregon --- backup ED, 137 snaps --- 53.6

Jordan Burch has been one of the major surprises of the year thus far. While he has yet to record his first NFL sack, he has posted 7 QB pressures/hurries, 7 tackles and 2 stops thus far as part of the edge rotation. Burch's physical strength and unusual athleticism for a player his size is extremely exciting. 

R4 - Cody Simon, LB, Ohio St. --- backup LB, 3 snaps --- 64.5

The Defensive MVP of the Rose Bowl and CFP National Championship game, Cody Simon, has been starring on special teams and most recently had his first chance to play (3 snaps in Week 4) on the defense.  Hopes are high that Cody Simon will shine in Nick Rallis system when his role expands. 

R5 - Denzel Burke, CB, Ohio St. --- backup CB turned starter (2 starts), 134 snaps --- 59.1

Denzel Burke impressed the Cardinals coaches from day one with his tenacious effort and pesky pursuits in pass coverage. While he has been touted as a very good zone CB, his man-to-man skills have been better than advertised, that is when he hasn't gotten too handsy. He and Max Melton lead the team with 3 penalties each. In 4 games, Denzel has allowed 7 catches on 12 targets (58.3%) for 105 yards (15.0 avg), 0 interceptions and 1 pass breakup. Another nice surprise has been his tackling, 6 tackles combined, 0 misses and 3 stops for an 80.4 tackling grade, which is 2nd on the team to Zaven Collins' (80.7). 

R6 - Hayden Conner, G, Texas --- IR (knee)

Hayden Conner, with his 6-6, 315 size and brute strength, was looking like a great system fit at center and guard before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Conner, with a strong return next season, could have a significant role for years to come on the offensive line. 

R7 - Kitan Crawford, S, Nevada --- backup S, 13 snaps --- 81.1 --- currently ranked #17 in coverage

The coaches cannot stop raving about versatile safety and special team's ace Kitan Crawford. His clutch coverage and ensuing tackle late in the game versus the Seahawks enable the Cardinals to get the ball back in the hands of the offense with a chance to tie the game. One can imagine that the coaches are going to play him more regularly in nickel and dime packages. Plus, as you can see below, Kitan is #1 on the team in special teams' grades, thanks to his team-leading 4 solo tackles and 2 assists.

Top Special Teams Grades 2025:

1. Kitan Crawford --- 77.6

2. Elijah Jones --- 76.1

3. Tip Reiman --- 75.2

4. Owen Pappoe --- 73.0

5. Kei'Trel Clark --- 70.7

6. Will Johnson --- 66.0

7. Cody Simon --- 64.7

Notes:

1. The Cardinals have only 3 draft picks who have made 20 or more starts since 2023: PJJ, Michael Wilson, MHJ. Rams have Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, Jared Verse. 49ers have Ricky Piersall, Dominic Puni, Dee Winters, Renardo Green. Seahawks have JSN, Byron Murphy II, Anthony Bradford, Devon Witherspoon

2. This season, Nick Rallis is the clear leader in the clubhouse who is getting the most out of the team's draft picks. 

3. This season on offense, only one player, Paris Johnson Jr., has a PFF grade of over 65.0. While on defense, Kei'Trel Clark, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Will Johnson and Kitan Crawford are all above 77.0.

4. The Cardinals' NFC West rival Rams are developing their draft picks over the past 3 years at a far stronger rate and significantly superior performance level:

LAR:

WR Puka Nacua (R5/23) -91.3

G Steve Avila (R2/23) - 69.7

DT Braden Kiske (R2/24) - 67.8

DE Byron Young (R3/23) - 84.6

ED Jaren Verse (R1/24) - 82.6

RB Blake Corum (R3/24) - 74.7

5. Other NFC West draft-related questions:

- Are Jaxson Smith-Njigba (R1/23) and Ricky Pearsall (R1/24) better picks at WR than Marvin Harrison Jr. (R1/24)?

- Is Braden Fiske (R2/24) a better pick at DI than Darius Robinson (R1/24)? 

- Is Dominic Puni (R3/24) a better pick at G than Isaiah Adams (R3/24? 

- Is A.J. Barner (R4/24) a better pick at TE than Tip Reiman (R3/24)?

- Is Renardo Green (R2/24) a better pick at CB than Max Melton (R2/24)?

- Is Blake Corum (R3/24) a better pick at RB than Trey Benson (R3/24)?

- Is Dee Winters (R6/23) a better pick at ILB than Owen Pappoe (R5/23)?

6. The Cardinals have yet to draft a player during this span who has made the Pro Bowl or Pro Football Writers' Association's (PFWA) All-Rookie Teams in 2023 or 2024, while these other NFC West players did:

* Rams: Puka Nacua (Both Pro Bowl and PFWA All-Rookie Team), Kobie Turner, Byron Young, Ethan Evans, Jared Verse (Both Pro Bowl and PFWA All-Rookie Team), Braden Fiske, Jordan Whittington

* 49ers: Ji'Ayir Brown, Dominic Puni

* Seahawks: Devon Witherspoon (Both Pro Bowl and PFWA All-Rookie Team), Jerrick Reed

Red Rain Question of the Day:

Given that the Cardinals are in year three of a rebuild that has included the selection of 28 draft picks that include 

* 4 1st rounders

* 3 2nd rounders  

* 7 3rd rounders

 How would you grade the Cardinals' coaches and trainers thus far in terms of player development?

By the way, my friend JoJo at RotoWire.com just informed me that in a recent RotoWire poll the Cardinals fans are the 9th most stressed fans in the NFL right now.

Most Stressed NFL Fans: Who Tops The List? (rotowire.com)






Comments

  1. I'd give the coaches a C+. The defensive picks that have actually been healthy enough to see the field have mostly been productive. Probably a solid B for Gannon/Rallis on that side of the ball. The offensive picks outside of PJJ leave much to be desired. Since Gannon is a defensive guy, I put most of this on Petzing. I know you wrote recently that we should be positive about Petzing but I think he needs to answer for the lack of development from these picks.

    As for the trainers, they get a big fat F. That's way too many guys who have barely seen the field because of injuries. Most of these guys didn't even have injury concerns coming out of college.

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  2. Consensus is a draft needs 3-5 seasons to fairly evaluate the picks. So far, too many our draft picks have spent more time on IR than on the field. Based on a very small sample size, I think Burch and Rabbit were insightful savvy later round picks while early picks Nolan, D Robinson, Ojulari I got , a bit unfairly, as potential busts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Regarding coaching and trainers development-
      The Cardinals finished the season ranked as the 7th-worst team in terms of Adjusted Games Lost (AGL), a metric that accounts for injuries to starters and rotational players. Further, the NFLPA's 2024 report card showed a decline in grades for the Cardinals' training and strength staff, raising concerns about the team's medical infrastructure. complete review and outside evaluation of the training staff must occur and changes made if that's the conclusion. Something ain't right!
      Coaches-This is an inexperienced, by design, staff that hasn't achieved a winning season. It remains to be seen if they can improve players who have more football experience playing their positions than the coaches charged with improving them.

      Delete
  3. Great breakdown, Walter. I'd be curious to see a similar breakdown of Monti's free agent signings, too.

    Pros: Some of the later round picks have been solid and our depth has improved vs. the last years before the rebuild.

    Cons: Health. Offensive picks (outside of PJJ), particularly in the context of the scheme the players were drafted into. I don't know what Michael Wilson's ceiling is, but we haven't seen it in this offense. Lack of star power, as you mentioned.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Draft grade = "C"
    --His #1 (PJJ, Harrison, Robinson, Nolen) are not seeing field as much as you would hope for #1 draft picks (thats primarily due to injuries to Nolen & Robinson) - Is Harrison just not right fit?
    --#2 draft selections (Ojulari, Melton, WIJO) looking decent (outside Ojulari who cant stay healthy); Melton selection of DeJean & McKinstry still turning out as questionable)
    --Burch, Stills, Rabbit all good draft selections (this is what we need to get starters & rotational players in rounds 3-6).

    Training Grade C-
    Back to back calf injuries to your #1 DL prospect seems too similar (I'm questioning the choice to put them on IR -v- putting player on roster - was it a "real calf injury" that occurred in training camp or was it the coaches putting a player on IR who wasn't ready for roster - if latter then these draft picks are waste of #1 pick, if real calf injury that led to placement on IR than I question training routine.)

    Coaching / Player Development = C-
    Coaching staff (like most in NFL) likes players who don't need coaching/development. ie. QB Development is dismal (Murray/Tune no better than when drafted)

    ReplyDelete

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