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ARI/DAL MNF: The Tostitos Soft-Shell Taco Bowl
photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images
By Walter Mitchell
The Cardinals' vs Cowboys' Monday Night Football contest this week is a story about returns and reunions,
Kyler Murray returns to AT&T Stadium with a chance to defend his legendary all-time 9-0 record there.
Jonathan Gannon reunites with one of his former mentors, Matt Eberflus.
Drew Petzing and the Cardinals' offense reunites with former offensive line coach Klayton Adams.
Cristian Garcia, the Cardinals new linebacker coach, returns to AT&T Stadium where last season he was an assistant defensive backs and quality control coach.
The reason why this MNF matchup between the Cardinals and the Cowboys might most aptly be titled "The Tostitos Soft-Shell Taco Bowl" is --- not only that these are the two NFC teams from the Southwest --- it's because both defenses play a heavy, guacamole-rich portion of soft-shell zone pass coverages.
Jonathan Gannon was Matt Eberflus' defensive backs coach for three seasons when "Flu" was the Colts' defensive coordinator. Gannon has often praised Flu for what he calls his "elite leadership skills."
- "Bend but don't break":The defense is built to prevent big plays and force opponents to be methodical, often giving up a lot of yards but fewer points.
- Zone coverage:Eberflus's defense relies heavily on zone coverage, though the specific look (e.g., two-high safeties) can vary based on the down and situation.
- Selective blitzing:He rarely blitzes, prioritizing keeping extra defenders in coverage. When he does blitz, it's often with a slot cornerback, and simulated pressure is also used sparingly.
- Turnover emphasis:The defense is designed to create turnovers and play aggressively, similar to a Dan Quinn-style defense.
- Disguised looks:Eberflus frequently uses disguises, especially with safety movements, to confuse opposing quarterbacks without a high blitz rate.
- Run defense focus:The scheme requires a disruptive and strong defensive line to be effective against the run.
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- Player-Centric Approach: The primary goal is to adapt the scheme to the individual strengths of his players rather than forcing players into a rigid scheme.
- H.I.T.S. Principle: His defense focuses on four core tenets:
- Hustle: Running to the ball on every play.
- Intensity: Out-hitting opponents.
- Takeaways: Forcing turnovers.
- Smarts: Playing intelligently and with discipline.
- Prevent Big Plays: A key objective is to eliminate explosive plays from the opponent.
- Fangio-Adjacent System: Gannon utilizes principles from Vic Fangio's system but often deviates, notably by favoring Quarters coverage over Fangio's preferred Cover 6.
- Emphasis on Quarters Coverage: Gannon's teams, particularly the Cardinals, frequently use Quarters, a coverage scheme that provides pseudo man-coverage by having defenders bracket routes and keep eyes on the quarterback.
- Disguise and Deception: Pre-snap disguises are used to confuse quarterbacks and muddy the picture of what the defense is doing.
- Front Alignment Flexibility: He employs Okie fronts (a five-man front) to create one-on-one matchups for the defensive line and generate consistent interior pressure, which helps free up linebackers.
- Aggressive Pass Rush: Gannon aims to generate pressure by employing various stunts and twists and rotating different edge rushers to collapse the pocket.
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- 2025 Average Points Allowed By Quarters:
- Q1: ARI 2.9 --- DAL 7.8
- Q2: ARI 5.6 --- DAL 8.4
- Q3: ARI 2.7 --- DAL 5.0
- Q4: ARI 10.9 --- DAL 9.8
- Q1: ARI 5.7 --- DAL 4.5
- Q2: ARI 6.7 --- DAL 12.6
- Q3: ARI 5.3 --- DAL 6.1
- Q4: ARI 4.1 --- DAL 6.8
2025 PFSN QBi Grade: 75.2 (C)
Last Week’s Ranking: 23
Kyler Murray has missed the last few weeks due to a foot injury, and Jacoby Brissett started in his place. The Arizona Cardinals had their bye week in Week 8, so Murray should be able to take the starting job back with an extra week of rest.
10) Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals
2025 PFSN QBi Grade: 82.8 (B-)
Last Week’s Ranking: 12
With Murray’s injury-related absence, Brissett has now put up a large enough sample size to qualify for our QBi grading. He couldn’t add to his statistics due to the Cardinals having their bye week, though.
5) Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2025 PFSN QBi Grade: 86.7 (B)
Last Week’s Ranking: 5
As has been the case for much of 2025, the Cowboys’ offense played well in Week 8, but their defense buried them in a hole too deep to overcome. Dak Prescott was a little more unstable than usual with his two interceptions and no touchdowns, but with the defense allowing 44 points, he was boxed into an aggressive mindset by default.
With a clutch sum of 1.34, Prescott grades as the most reliable quarterback in crunch time in the NFL this season. He’s second in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, and he’s the third-most efficient QB in the league in terms of EPA per dropback under pressure.
ARI - DAL Team Rankings Heading into Week 9:
Overall: ARI - 24; DAL - 18
Offense: ARI 22; DAL - 6
Passing: ARI 12; DAL - 3
Receiving: ARI - 22; DAL - 7
Pass Blocking: ARI - 23; DAL - 28
Rushing: ARI - 27; DAL - 17
Run Blocking: ARI - 27; DAL - 9
Defense: ARI - 24; DAL - 32
Run Defense: ARI - 26; DAL - 32
Tackling: ARI - 24; DAL - 16
Pass Rush: ARI - 28; DAL - 17
Pass Coverage: ARI - 12; DAL - 32
Special Teams: ARI - 9; DAL - 16
Category Winners: ARI - 5; DAL - 8
The reason why the Cowboys are most likely to win the Tostitos Soft-Shell Taco Bowl?
Dak Prescott 24 for 24 for 300 yards versus Eagles - Google Search
- High efficiency:Prescott has completed a high percentage of passes against zone, with a perfect 24-of-24 performance for 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles' zone coverage (December 24, 2022 vs Jonathan Gannon's top ranked defense).
- Leading the league:In the 2023 season, he led the NFL with 10 touchdown passes against zone coverage after Week 7 of that year.
- Strong advanced metrics:Since Week 8 of the 2023 season, he generated more total EPA against zone coverage than any other quarterback.
- Notable games:In a game against the Packers, he completed 29 of 35 passes for 294 yards and 3 touchdowns against zone coverage, generating high EPA and win probability added.
- Dissecting zone defenses:Prescott has a history of success against zone, indicating a strong ability to read the defense and find open windows in the coverage.
- Playing under pressure:His ability to handle pressure is also a factor, as he ranks highly in both EPA when facing disruption and efficiency when the play is clean.
- Versatility:He can generate positive outcomes with accurate throws to open receivers or by scrambling for yards when necessary.
- Generally better: Prescott is ranked higher against zone coverage than man coverage.
- DVOA ranking: Data from some sources has shown a significant negative difference in his DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against man coverage compared to zone coverage.
Which Cardinals' QB gives the team the stronger chance to win?
I believe that Jacoby Brissett gives the Cardinals a stronger chance to beat the Cowboys. Typically, versus soft-shell zones, Kyler Murray goes into dink and dunk mode, which is exactly what the Cowboys would prefer the Cardinals to do.
Jacoby, on the other hand, as we saw versus the Colts' and Packers' zones (two of the best zone coverage teams in the NFL), loves to attack the intermediate gray areas of the zones by throwing what are called "hole shots." Hole shots are passes to receivers to areas of the field that cannot be covered by the safeties.
Like this hole shot to Zay Jones:
https://x.com/i/status/1980026074206793926
Like this hole shot go-route to Marvin Harrison Jr.:
https://x.com/jbchoknows/status/1983520019557613848
I think Jacoby sees these hole shots better and throws them faster and stronger.
Brian Baldinger said that the key drive moving 24-yard hole shot that Jacoby Brissett threw over the middle to Zay Jones on the last possession that moved the team from their own 31-yard line to the Green Bay 45-yard line "was not a throw that Kyler (typically) makes."
In his two games (again for context, versus two top 10 defenses), Jacoby threw for 12 downfield gems of 15+ yards, 11 of which went 20+. His 3rd completion percentage of 57.1% was higher than any other NFL starting QB's percentage to date. Because he is better throwing to all areas of the field and better at throwing on schedule and time, he gives the team the best chance to win.
Plus, quite understandably, his teammates want to keep riding with Jacoby, because they have seen how the offense has become more explosive with him throwing downfield on schedule and on time.
Here is the epitome of "small ball" and the "3rd and Give Up" offense under Kyler Murray:
Percentage of Passes Thrown Beyond the Sticks --- Top 36 QBs in Pass Attempts and Kyler Murray ranks #34.
1st downs --- 32.1%
2nd Downs --- 29.0%
3rd Downs --- 45.5% (a number of which are thrown out of bounds)
Average: 34.4% (Ranks #34 of the top 36 QBs in pass attempts)
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Cowboys' defense has been one of the worst in the league this season, particularly against the pass, making it an ideal matchup for Murray to return and build confidence. His performance will have significant implications for his narrative and could determine whether skepticism about his long-term future with the franchise grows or subsides. If he fails to deliver a more than competent performance, as in he has to put this squad on his back and win, there is no one left outside of the franchise who can credibly argue for his retention next season.
ReplyDeleteIt's unfortunate that its come down to this one game but this is a make or brake, do or do it elsewhere game for Kyler and most likely the staff.
This may be the game that results in Kyler being benched (which, if that happens, I don't see him starting another game for AZ regardless of what else happens at QB e.g. injuries). However, I don't see it as "make or break." I think his long-term future is not going to be with us. Kyler has had so many years under multiple regimes to prove he's the guy and has never done so. As for putting the team on his back to win, he's publicly said he does not want to have to do that (what a thing to say!).
DeleteBest case scenario for Kyler personally is he keeps Brissett from taking over in 2025. Otherwise, he may be looking at a backup job somewhere, which I don't know that he would even take.
I agree. Meant "make or break" regarding his tenure with the Cards. If he does get benched, he's done in AZ.
DeleteBenched or not, if he hits the trade mkt 2026, Cards will get what the Giants got for D Jones-nothing except a dead cap hit.
He will have an opportunity elsewhere if he wants one and I agree that might be something he doesn't want.
Just added (to the end of the blog) a "throw beyond the sticks" chart that manifests the epitome of "small ball" and the "3rd and Give Up" offense under Kyler Murray.
ReplyDeletePercentage of Pass Thrown Beyond the Sticks --- Kyler Murray
Delete1st downs --- 32.1%
2nd Downs --- 29.0%
3rd Downs --- 45.5% (a number of which are thrown out of bounds and it already one of the lowest percentages in the NFL))
Average: 34.4% (Ranks #34 of the top 36 QBs in pass attempts)
But its his head coaches fault, wait its the O-Line's fault, wait, wait, its his OC fault, wait wait wait, its his WR fault...the excuses for his poor performance and decision making always has an endless scape-goat. Sound familiar? (Mikey like him some scape-GOAT).
DeleteWalt, you misspelled Gannons (Rallis) D philosophy. It's not H.I.T.S, it is totally S.H.I......you get the point 😁
ReplyDeleteYes, Rauchie, come 4th quarter it's "Oh not this S.H.... again?"
DeleteLet’s generously give Gannon one more win this season. He will have a tenured Winn % of .294. Kliff was fired with 448% and coached a team with the same QB to the playoffs.
DeleteHmmm
Was Gannon hired to win or just be the next one to tank for the draft? 2/3 of his tenure spent in the losing to tank philosophy to replace depleted talent. When staff cannot develop the 15 (top100) draft picks in past three (3) years.
DeletePeople (Natl media) were against KK hire from get-go he actually did better than most people realized and the PR team of Cardinals pushed the KK narrative instead of placing blame were it really belonged with MB & SK who did everything they could to undermine KK and his tenure. I grow tired of the blame game by MB, it does not good for team culture and coaches willingness to coach for this organization.