Cardinals' Pass Defense Barometer is a Key to Winning

                                                         photo by @azcentral.com

By Walter Mitchell

As many of you know, for a couple of years now, because of how alarming it was to see the Cardinals' defense so rarely get their hands on the football, I started keeping what I call the PDB (Pass Defense Barometer).

The formula for each game is simple: Interceptions + Pass Breakups = PCB

Last season, the Cardinals' defense was 31st in the NFL in PDB at a paltry sum of 9 interceptions + 26 PBUs = 35. Only the Titans were worse at 11 + 19 = 30.

What was so encouraging about the way the Cardinals' defense was playing in their wins over the Saints and Panthers was their PDBs were 10 and 10. Think about that --- in two games the Cardinals PDB was 20 which was already 57% of what the entire PDB was last season.

However, here's a look at how the Cardinals' PDB has now been on a decline:

1. W @ NO - PDB: 10 (0 ints. + 10 PBUs)

2. W vs CAR - PDB: 10 (1 int. + 9 PBUs)

3. L @ SFO - PDB: 5 (1 int. + 4 PBUs)

4. L vs. SEA - PDB: 2 (0 int. + 2 PBUs) Note: SEA PDB: 2 int. + 8 PBUs = 10

Is there a correlation of the Cardinals' PDB to the team's chances of winning? I believe it's a notable factor. 

PDB Leaders in the Clubhouse after 4 Games:

4 - Mack Wilson Sr. --- 1 int. + 3 PBUs

4 - Will Johnson --- 4 PBUs

4 - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson --- 1 int. + 3 PBUs

3 - Max Melton - 3 PBUs

3 - Denzel Burke - 3 PBUs

2 - Baron Browning - 1 int + 1 PBU

1 - PJ Mustipher, Garrett Williams, Kei'Trel Clark, Dante Stills, Bubba Baker, Jalen Thompson and Akeem Davis-Gaither (all have 1 PBU).

Nick Rallis' Week 5 message for his defense:

“We need to do a better job of winning the explosive play and the takeaway battle,” Rallis said. “And that's what I talked to the players about. I'd say the last two games, there were too many explosives. And that's not a formula to win games.”

Yes, and if one factors in the Cardinals decline in PDB, over the past two games they are reverting back to the glaring lack of hands on the football. 

Theo Mackie of azcentral.com complied these defensive stat comparisons:

"With a quarter of the season gone, here’s how the Cardinals are performing in those key areas:

• * Plays of 15-plus yards: 7.0 allowed per game, up from 6.6 last season.
• * Turnovers: 1.0 per game, exactly the same as last season.
• * Sacks: 2.0 per game, down from 2.4 last season."

Arizona Cardinals searching for more big plays on defense (azcentral.com)

Theo, imo, is doing an excellent job of holding the Cardinals' coaches and players accountable. And in light of the comparisons that he drew from last year's defense to this year's defense, one cannot make a cogent argument that this year's defense thus far is clearly better, ugh, despite all of the additions this off-season.

 

Reaction to Nick Rallis' Message:

Like pretty much everything the current Cardinals coaches do, Rallis' message is a braiding of ultra caution with aggressive urgings. But can the players be cautious and aggressive at the same time? 

"We need to do a better job of winning the explosive plays" --- aka playing things safe (hello soft zones)

"We need to do a better job of winning the takeaway battle" --- aka playing sticky coverage and jumping routes (hello pesky man-to-man or matchup zones).

As a result, there are mixed messages here. 

When a coach keeps instilling the fear of giving up explosives, the players are apt to play cautiously. 

Look at how conservatively the defense has played in the 4th quarter of every game thus far. In the two games they won, they got a clutch pass breakup in the end zone by Jalen Thompson versus the Saints and a game winning sack from Calais Campbell versus the Panthers --- in both cases having played so soft on defense in the second half that they let both teams back into the game and allowed them chances to tie or win.

In the two losses, with the games on the line late in the 4th quarter, the defense never got a single hand on the football. Mac Jones threw repeatedly to wide open receivers on their game winning field goal drive. And against the Seahawks in a tie game with 23 seconds left (after a 1st down incompletion), just in one 22-yard back shoulder pass play from Sam Darnold to their hottest receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks were already in field goal position.  At least, Nick Rallis was playing man coverage on JSN. But why didn't Rallis think to double team him?

Plus, the Cardinals' defense then gave up a 4-yard run in a bizarre formation that did not have any defensive tackles to clog the middle. 

Have you ever seen Nick Rallis double team the opponent's hottest receiver with games on the line? In fact, there has been a greater likelihood that the hottest receiver on the other team would be left wide open in a Rallis defense, rather than double teamed. Ask Justin Jefferson or Adam Theilen or Ricky Pearsall. 

What this type of conservative defense suggests is that Jonthan Gannon and Nick Rallis do not have the trust in their players to let them play in full attack, sticky mode. 

This, imo, is the reason why we so often seeing Cardinals' defenders lost in no man's land. Which of course, is a QBs and WRs dream come true.

QBR Comparisions through 4 Weeks:

1. Kyler Murray 42.7 --- Spencer Rattler 51.7

2. Kyler Murray 73.5 --- Bryce Young 41.3

3. Kyler Murray 52.0 --- Mac Jones 62.7

4. Kyler Murray 28.0 --- Sam Darnold 75.3

Prediction:

If the Cardinals win the PDB and QBR battles, then they are most apt to win games. When they split or lose both, they are almost guaranteed to lose.

Would love to see Nick Rallis try to go beast mode with his defensive players. To reach for the gold ring you often have to jump for it, otherwise, most assuredly, you will whiff.