Jacoby's Ladder vs Dak's Escalator

By Walter Mitchell

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the tonight's Cardinals vs Cowboys game is how Jacoby Brissett's ability to climb the ladder to make downfield throws from the pocket will compare to Dak Prescott's uncanny ability to escalate the Cowboys' passing game by picking apart zone defenses. 

Because of Jacoby Brissett, the Cardinals are now employing traditional pass protection, where the QB can step up when necessary to make a variety of throws from inside the pocket. Tonight, Jacoby Brissett is going up against a vulnerable Matt Eberflus coached defense that, guess what, is in many ways identical to the defense that Brissett throws against in practice every day. As stated in my Tostito's Bowl blog last week, Jonathan Gannon is a Matt Eberflus disciple of the soft shell, "bend but don't break" philosophy.

Yet, the major problem for Matt Eberflus thus far this season as the Cowboys' new DC, has been (a) stopping the run and (b), despite a coverage philosophy that is designed to cut down on chunk yard passing plays, they have been giving up a plethora of them. 

In their most recent 44-24 loss vs the Broncos, Bo Nix passed for 19/29, 247 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int., with an outstanding QBR of 82.9. The Broncos rushed for 179 yards at 6.4 yards a pop with J.K. Dobbins running for 111 yards and rookie RJ Harvey scoring 2 TDs. 

Check out the Broncos' top 3 WR performances:

* Troy Franklin --- 6/89/2 TDs

* Courtland Sutton --- 4/67/0 TDs

* Pat Bryant --- 2/40/1 TD

Plus, TE Evan Engram caught 4 passes on 4 targets for 36 yards.

Imagine, then, what kind of numbers the Cardinals could put up in this game with Jacoby Brissett throwing to Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson and Zay Jones, with perhaps a few stardust sprinkles on top from Greg Dortch. 

In addition, tonight could be a career night for Bam Knight, Emari Demercado or Michael Carter if the Cardinals ride the hot hand, which, according to Jonathan Gannon, is the team's RB approach this week.

Coverage Grades for Cowboys' starters:

LB Kenneth Murray Jr. --- 51.7

LB Shermar Jones --- 47.7

CB Kaiir Elam --- 60.6

SS Markquese Bell --- 49.6

FS Juanyeh Thomas --- 57.5

CB Trikweze Bridges --- 37.4

NCB DaRon Bland --- 70.5

PFF Team Coverage Grade: 43.0 ranked #32 in NFL

On the flip side, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them tonight going up against Dak Prescott, who is arguably one of the top 3 QBs versus zone coverage in the NFL. Note: Dak had a historic performance pass versus Jonathan Gannon's zone defense on December 28, 2022 going 24/24 for 300 yards and 3 TDs.

Here are sone NextGen type of stats about Dak and the Cardinals receivers in a preview of the game.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2890713674650836

Nick Rallis has been playing "Quarters" where the two cornerbacks and two deep safeties each are responsible for a quarter of the field. 

General rules of thumb of the Cover 4:

CBs --- play man defense on the widest receiver but also have responsibility for their deep quarter of the field.

Ss --- align straight over and key on the #2 release receiver (TE or slot WR) on their side and when the receivers run block, the safeties storm the alley to force the run. When the TE or Slot WR to their side release on pass routes, then the safeties try to help on passes over the middle while trying to make sure that no receiver gets behind them on their deep quarters of the field. 

On passing downs, the Cardinals tend to keep their two ILBs in the middle and have Jalen Thompson come up to play the slot --- this the defense now becomes a 4-3-4 look, just the way Matt Eberflus' is designed. 

Note: the Cardinals' 4-3-4 "Quarters" shell puts a significant amount of pressure on the 3 defenders in the middle. These are the coverage grades of the 3 defenders whom Dak Prescott is going to try to exploit more often than not:

* Jalen Thompson --- 63.3

* Mack Wilson Sr. --- 57.8

* Akeem Davis-Gaither --- 53.3

The Cardinals' 4 Quarters' coverage grades:

* CB Will Johnson --- 70.5

* S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson --- 68.9

* S Budda Baker --- 40.6

* CB Max Melton --- 59.6

* CB/S Garrett Williams --- 63.4

Cardinals Team Coverage Grade: 60.7 which ranks tied for #12 in NFL

Budda Baker is the weak link in "quarters" coverage here --- but he's also arguably the best FS in the NFL at storming the alley to the football. So that's the trade-off. 

Interestingly, Vic Fangio of the Eagles, like to play "Quarters" coverage, but look at the grades of his three defenders on the intermediate level:

* Zach Baun --- 75.1

* Jihad Campbell --- 83.3

* Cooper DeJean --- 80.0

Of course, what could help the Cardinals' pass coverage big-time in this game is improving on these pass rush averages:

* 114 QB pressures in 7 games: 16.2 average per game

* 12 sacks in 7 games: 1.7 average per game

Comparatively: the Cowboys' pass rush averages:

* 148 QB pressures in 8 games: 18.5 average per game

* 15 sacks: 1.9 average per game

Cowboys' pass rush grade: 69.9 (#17 in NFL)

Cardinals' pass rush grade: 62.6 (#27 in NFL)

The outcome of tonight's game could likely come down to which team's offensive line gets the upper hand.

Justin Frye's: RBLK --- 53.1 ($#27); PBLK --- 59.5 (#23)

or

Klayton Adams': RBLK --- 67.6 (#10); PBLK --- 50.8 (#29)

Which team is best ready for Prime Time?

Could it be in the stars for Jacoby?

Or in the upper deck for Dak?