Kyler Murray and Cardinals are at a boiling point impasse
No Trade Zone for Kyler Murray?
While a number of NFL pundits like ESPN's Bill Barnwell and Jeremy Fowler are creating 2026 off-season trade scenarios for Kyler Murray, the likelihood of the Cardinals getting any trade offers are slim to none and Slim may have just left the Casa Rojo section of State Farm Stadium.
The notion that the Cardinals will not be able to trade Kyler has nothing to do with talent and almost everything to do with his exorbitant and prohibitive contract. I say "almost everything" because there are Kyler's subpar performance factors at play here as well.
Potential Suitors:
1. Saints --- right now they seem to love Tyler Shough and at #2 in the 2026 draft order they could choose Ty Simpson or Fernando Mendoza.
2. Giants --- feels like they are enamored with Jaxson Dart, if they can keep him healthy.
3. Browns --- they are not going to pick up Kyler's contract.
4. Jets --- they are stockpiling picks to be able to draft their QBOF.
5. Raiders --- could much depend on whether they keep Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly.
6. Dolphins --- they have to figure out Tua's future and perhaps Mike McDaniel's.
7. Vikings --- they may give the Colts a run for the signing of Daniel Jones or may decide to stick with J.J. McCarthy.
8. Panthers --- seems like they are not going to pick up Bryce Young's 5th year option so maybe there's a slight bit of a window here.
9. Steelers --- if Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2026, he'll stay in Pittsburgh.
The reality is that by the 5th day of the new 2026 NFL season in March, any team that trades for Kyler Murray would be on the hook for paying him $62M for one year or $79M for two.
As Will Ferrell would say "not gonna happen."
There is a possibility that if the Cardinals were willing to eat a large portion of Kyler's 2026 salary, then maybe a QB needy team might bite.
But here's why no team could bite --- everyone in the NFL universe knows that if the Cardinals do not get a trade offer for Kyler Murray, then they are going to decline picking up his $19.5M 2027 salary bonus that's due on the 5th day, March 16, of the new 2026 season.
Points of No return
As was the case with Tyrann Matthieu and DeAndre Hopkins coming off poor seasons after the second years of a lucrative multi-year contracts, Kyler Murray is going to be released after his 3rd year of a 5 year $230.5M contract --- without the Cardinals getting anything in return.
NFL teams already know that Kyler Murray, by March 16, 2026, will become an unrestricted free agent and will be free to sign with any team, The Cardinals will be on the hook for paying Kyler the $42.5M that he was already guaranteed for the 2026 season.
It also is possible that in the days and weeks ahead Kyler and the Cardinals agree to a contract buyout figure so that he can be free and clear of anything Cardinals' related, sooner rather than later.
Prove-It Deal Ahead
The question then begs, what kind of a salary will Kyler Murray make in 2026, if he decides to take his talents to a new NFL team?
It is going to have to be some kind of a "prove it" deal akin to the ones that Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold signed this past off-season. Jones, bet on himself, and signed a 1-year $14M contract with the Colts that included $13.5M in guaranteed money. Darnold, on the other hand, agreed to a 3-year $100M contract with the Seahawks with $37.5M guaranteed in the first year.
As impressive as Jones and Darnold are playing this season, it's a given at this point that both of them will be cashing in on significantly more lucrative multi-year contracts this off-season.
Kyler can hope to latch on to the right coach and the right team and then parlay a promising season into a second long-term, lucrative contract.
The Other Elephant in the Room
The 2025 Kyler Murray saga is just another chapter in a troubling series of QB gaffes that the Cardinals' front office has made since the team moved to Arizona. Prime examples:
1. Lowballing Kurt Warner in 2009 after being the only QB to take the Cardinals to the Super Bowl.
2. Signing Sam Bradford to a 2-year $40M free agent contract in 2018.
3. "Josh is our guy" in 2019.
4. Caving in and signing Kyler Murray in 2022 to a 5-year $230.5M contract that included a "homework clause" and a $10.5M incentive for him to participate in the team's OTAs.
5. "We're not going to trade you, Josh (Dobbins)" in 2023.
6. "Kyler's our franchise quarterback" in 2023.
7. "Kyler's going to start versus the Cowboys" in 2025.
8. "Nothing's changed, Kyler will start, if he's ready this week" (for 4 weeks) in 2025.
9. Afternoon that the trading deadline was over, "tomorrow we are placing Kyler on the IR."
Whom do the Cardinals think they are fooling?
In terms of the Cardinals clinging to the hope that they can trade Kyler before March 16th, 2026, an important question is --- how many teams would be willing to negotiate a deal with current Cardinals' GM Monti Ossenfort --- (a) in light of all the Cardinals' recent and past deceptions --- and (b) in light of how Ossenfort during his first draft in 2023 committed a breach of GM decorum by having his private trade talk with the Texans' GM Nick Caserio go public. It should be noted that Ossenfort has not been able to make a 1st round trade since and it's possible that no other NFL GM will want to risk dealing with the Cardinals in any shape or fashion, especially for a gifted, but polarizing player.
Kyler's Current Frame of Mind
It's likely that while Kyler is feeling bitter about the way his "quiet benching" went down, but, on the other that he is relieved about no longer having to play in an offensive system that is not an ideal fit or for playing on a coaching staff that is void of any coach who has ever played quarterback in college or the NFL.
Kyler at this point may be just as motivated as the Cardinals, or perhaps even more, to wanting to part ways.
One may imagine he is excited to learn what his options are next season will be, including perhaps potential career-shifting options outside of football.
Do you think if Jacoby gets injured, they would play Kyler if healthy or is it in the best interest of this team to keep Kyler off the field and not risk injury.
ReplyDeleteJethro, Kyler has injury clauses in his contract that would make it idiotic to play him again, especially in a down year with no playoff contention.
DeleteWalt you nailed it-the Kyler Murray era is over. Now the question becomes and the answer will become more obvious with every lopsided loss the rest of the season, is the JG and MO era over? It should be IMO. Failure across the board.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is, the guy who "fixes" every systemic mess of a franchise has proven incapable of fixing anything, ex the training staff and the last 37 seasons. The faces might change but the failure won't.
Whilst I agree the coaches need replaced, that is a perfect example of why Bidwill will want to keep the existing coaches, to show league he has loyalty to his hand-picked sycophants. Failure is not a problem with Bidwill.
DeleteI think you have answered this question perfectly on Red Rain, 61. And as I have tried to profile on this thread with the past and most recent QB gaffes made by the FO and HC, how feasible would it be to sign or a draft a new QBOF with this coaching staff in place?
DeleteMy vote would be to keep this staff in place and give them the resources they need to build on what they have done to date. There is plenty of talent on the roster and even with the Kyler mess, cap is not an issue.
DeleteI would love to see what they could do with a hand picked QB and whatever is needed to keep the players healthy!
NS Card—built what exactly? We’re about to win 3-6 games this season. Monti has been an abject failure in the draft and free agency. His first 7 picks, all in the top 90 of 2024, every single one of them has been a bust on varying levels relative to where they were picked and expectations. He traded out of Will Anderson who’s the 2nd best pass rusher in the league to draft an above average LT. He let two pro bowlers (Allen and Murphy) walk out the door his first summer here and has not acquired one PB/All Pro as a GM. His only elite player is a Keim holdover. None of the guys we’ve got on
Deleteseason ending IR other than Conner would’ve made a legitimate difference.
JG just finished coaching a game where his guys committed 17 penalties vs the other teams 1.
You’re setting the bar way too low. It’d be damn near impossible to accomplish less with the significant draft and free agent capital than what this regime has done. 15-29 and trending in the wrong direction (b2b 40+ point blow outs, 17 penalties vs 1) is objectively rock bottom. It’s an embarrassing time to be a Cardinals fan. Mikey, Monti and JG got us here. Giving them a fourth season to right a ship they’ve shown zero ability to correct would be a complete waste of a season. We will never compete in the nfc west with this regime
Worst case scenario- KM is released and picked on the cheap by the Rams and Sean McVey turns him into the QB he might have been here with some maturity, tough experienced coaching and an aggressive hands off owner.
ReplyDeleteKyler is not a fit in McVay's system. Puka Nacua would no longer be a top 5 WR in yards and TDs.
DeleteMcVay would certainly be able to design a system that would maximize Kyler. And the truth of it is he is capable of MVP play so if not McVay, someone else will get better out of a matured and humbled Kyler. Kyler is not the person required to make that work in AZ at this point and will need a 'fresh start' and some favourable circumstances to play his best ball.
DeleteHi Walter! What do you think about Tennessee? They could bring Kyler similar to how the Colts brought Daniel Jones to compete with Anthony Richardson for the starting job.
ReplyDeleteHi Victor, interesting thought although I think they are very invested in Cam Ward. It could depend on who their new HC is. Can't see them picking up Kyler's contract. And I don't think Kyler will want to go to the Titans. What do you think?
DeleteObviously it would be on a prove it deal because I agree nobody will take on that contract especially when the Cardinals have made it abundantly clear that they will release Murray. The new coaching staff will not have handpicked Ward and may want a floor-raising QB like Kyler in case Ward doesn't progress adequately.
DeleteAdditionally, do you think Murray is going to have enough suiters to the point where he can be picky? Will he prioritize the organization or being closer to starting?
DeleteIf he becomes a free agent, yes, he will likely have a few bidders. It may be a combination of what his chances to win the QB1 job are, who the coach is and who offers him the most money.
DeleteI am certain he would go somewhere with an opening earmarked for him. Can't see Kyler as the personality that would make for helpful competition in a qb room with and new qb to the nfl. Imagine the tension in the room!
DeleteThe leak from NFL insiders was an east coast team in the spring. With the implosion of McCarthy Kyler would have a plethora of weapons surrounding him and QB guru OConnel. The Jets are on record on having a veteran QB to on board their rookie QB they draft this year. Browns might be more of an outside chance but they could be considered. Its a weak free age QB pool.this year so dont underestimate Kylers value.
ReplyDeleteKyler as the veteran to help groom a rookie qb would be the worst possible decision that I can think of IMO. If that ever happens, I hope it is in SF, LA or Seattle.
DeleteWinnable game today. Both teams decimated by injury but one coaching staff has coached 6 wins the other, 3. This contest of mash units will illuminate the coaching abilities of both staffs. Which staff will scheme, motivate, situationally play call and position their players best?
ReplyDeleteReflecting on KM- A Heisman Trophy, OFRY, 7 season starter was replaced after just 3 games by a 3rd (5th QB pick) round pick, journeyman back up cut by 7 teams.