Red Rain Podcast 202: Have Cardinals Hit Rock Bottom?
By Walter Mitchell, Kyle "L'il Rock" Ledbetter and Seguaro Sam
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Clayton Tune: The Fateful Path of an NFL Legacy by Walter Mitchell photo: @azcardinals.com via Instagram During the second night of the 2023 NFL Draft, Clayton Tune received a call from the Green Bay Packers. The Packers wanted to assure Clayton of their interest in drafting the University of Houston quarterback at some point on day three. When the Arizona Cardinals selected Clayton Tune with the #139 pick a day later, he was surprised, given that the Cardinals had not expressed any significant interest in him during the pre-draft process. The Cardinals were not one of the six teams that brought him in for 30 visits (Texans, Saints, Browns, Steelers, Bucs, Giants). Tune had also been given a private workout by the Rams. The eventual link the Cardinals had to Clayton Tune was that Israel Woolfork was one of his coaches at the Senior Bowl. At that time, Woolfork had just finished his second year of a Bill Walsh/Bill Willis coaching fellowship with the Cleveland Browns. A...
Enjoyed the pod.
ReplyDeleteI think this coming season has a wide range of possible outcomes. I do believe that the high end of that range is playoffs and maybe even a run considering the talent on the roster and a (hopefully) healthy roster. This requires all the right buttons pushed however but does happen elsewhere in the league.
Using Seattle as an example, they rebuilt for a number of years and than made many changes that a lot of pundits were critical of but they have hit the highest range of all those possible outcomes;
- Move on from Carroll and hire MacDonald - home run
- Move on from Metcalf and lean on JSN - home run
- Sign an aging Kupp - home run
- Sign an aging Lawrence - home run
- Trade Geno and sign Darnold - home run
- Trade for Shaheed - home run
- Move on from Grubb and hire someone to run MacDonald's preferred run heavy scheme - home run
MacDonald inherited a roster not to dissimilar to the Cardinals today and with some correct moves and a couple of excellent draft picks along the way, has a championship roster. I do believe that is the highest range of outcomes for the Cardinals as well (though obviously a little unlikelier).
Someone made a comment that we are in worse shape than when MO and JG took over and I couldn't disagree more. We are a 1000% better than when they took over. We actually have all of our draft picks, a young well stocked roster with some strong pieces at virtually every level. At this point, I think JB is a better QB than Kyler has been for us. Our cap is in great shape and maybe one of the best in the league considering everything, especially over the next 3 years.
Petzing was a loss and I think we are going to see that he was a lot better than he was given credit for here. With the Sears connection, him to Detroit was an easy call. He must have been on an expiring contract. I thought the new coach would have an opportunity to keep some of these coaches if they wanted them but the Cardinals allowed Petzing to make a lateral move. Not sure why.
"Our cap is in great shape and maybe one of the best in the league considering everything, especially over the next 3 years." I agree with his comment because it's forward looking over the next 3 years.
DeleteHowever, impacting the 2026-27 season, if the Cardinals cut Kyler Murray before June 1, 2026, they would take roughly a $58 M dead-cap hit, wiping out their projected cap space and leaving them about $25–30 M over the cap, meaning they would have essentially $0 to spend on free agents or re-signing players unless they make additional cuts or restructures. I don't think they will find a trade partner for KM given the identical Daniel Jones/Giants situation and others recently.
Further-Cutting Kyler pre-June forces Arizona to gut veteran leadership just to break even in 2026, leaving almost no ability to spend, while 2027 becomes the first year with real flexibility again—but only after sacrificing proven talent most likely unavoidable cuts like Budda and James Connor. There are other no brainer cuts that will save money like Jonah Williams and maybe Thomlinson as well as other depth players.
DeleteEvery coaching candidate knows this when interviewing for the job.
I think we are in far better shape than that. All my figures will be OTC figures.
DeleteWe currently have just over 30M in cap space for 2026, which is 11th in the whole league. Off season uses top 51 cut off and we have 274M of cap liabilities for this coming year, of which, Kyler is on the books for just over 52M of that 274M. He has a dead cap of 54M if he is cut by the 5th day of the new league year, which is March 11th. This is the worst case scenario and would result in a 2M loss of cap space, leaving us with approx. 28M to spend.
There are some void years for Thompson and Williams, both of which are free agents this year, that total just over 10M. This is easily offset with a couple of cuts such as Murphy-Bunting and Nichols, who are most certainly gone IMO. So, with Kyler cut, Williams and Thompson accounted for and SMB and Nichols cut, we would have just over 30M is cap space.
As you guys discussed on an earlier pod, there are 10's of Millions of dollars that could be saved with cuts such as Tomlinson, Budda, Conner, Brown, ADG etc. But none of this is necessary to help create cap space as we have lots. In fact, restructures would be just as helpful because we have as much space as any team in the league in 2027 and 2028. And both of these years will increase by about 45M each year when Kyler is traded because that's what he is on the books for in those years. We get that space back when he is traded.
In regards to Kyler, I am confident he will be an easy trade and that it will create cap space as well. If the Cardinals pay down his contract by 30M, it will leave a team with a 49M/2 year deal with 32M guaranteed. This would add another 20M cap space to the Cardinals and that kind of 2 year deal is barely Justin Fields money.
For all the things MO has done that some people don't like, he has the Cardinals cap in phenomenal shape, including this year. If we hit on a rookie QB this year and can get a rookie contract locked in for the next 4 years, there will be more issues with the floor of spending than there will with the cap - even with extensions coming up. Fingers crossed.
I like your thinking and I’m lighting a candle that you’re right about trading KM
DeleteI should have taken you up on your bet of Petzing to Detroit.
DeleteThe parallel between Russ Wilson & Kyler Murray contracts is on par. Seattle realized an aging Wilson was not in their future, and his salary cap hit was painful for a year or two. That is what cardinals need to do to right the ship. Cutting Kyler isn't an option, its a requirement to get a bad contract off the books. We can use JB for a year, and take best of luck in '27 draft for a QB (late round flyer on QB in '26) just in case. I want us to draft an Edge with Rnd 1 pick, and RG/RT with #2 & 3 picks.
ReplyDeleteThis team can be turned around, its just going to take two years with KM contract issue (Thank you Mr Bidwill) - and, no I don't want him in the facility in '26. He has been one of biggest issues since his #1 draft selection seven (7) years ago.
Another issue in turning this team around, is its owner. We've been harping on it, we need Bidwill to step-aside from making football decisions. Every decision he makes is short-sighted (at least for a winning football club) and made with the silliest of gestures toward having a winning team. What do you bet we come out of coaching carousel with worst of candidates, and last to be hired. Casting a wide net meant Nobody is interested in being a coach of Cardinals so we have to cast our net to every Tom, Dick, and Harry to see if we can get lucky with anyone of worth. With zero expectations. Does MO have a plan for his coach of future, absolutely - "No experience required"; "Willingness to step aside for owners greed" and an absolute must have in AZ "Willingness to be a players coach." Welcome to Camp Redbird - where we sit back and lounge in the lazy river of the styx, eyes fixed on the prize.
Well said RR! One question we Cards fans should ask ourselves when they do hire a coach and announce his staff hires-Do we have the best or worst HC in the division? McVay, Shanahan, McDonald or...?
DeleteSince - I believe we will still place last on the list of HC from NFCW. We have been shown for decades how ownership feels about its coaching staff. It is exceptional 'luck' that Cardinals get an average HC, let alone one of best in league. Which undoubtably as of today the other three (3) divisional teams have some of best in league.
DeleteGood podcast guys. Being a Cardinal fan isn't easy and always seems to be anticlimactic. Like most Card fans, I am hoping for the best expecting the worst. I keep saying to myself, we're due we're due, we're due for Bidwill to get it right this time. When is the broken clock going to be right again???? UGH
ReplyDeleteThis team has only one other playoff victory(2015) since 2009 when they beat the Packers at home 45-51 and went 11-6. Warner - 29 of 33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs, Rodgers - 28 of 42 for 423 yards and 4 TDs. What a game and season 2009-10 was.
Pro Bowlers 2009-10
SS Adrian Wilson (1st team)
WR Larry Fitzgerald (2nd team)
DE Darnell Dockett (2nd team)
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
DB Antrel Rolle
How did that 2008-09, 2009-10 team become the most entertaining AZ Cardinal teams in my lifetime?
GM - Rod Graves
HC - Whisenhunt
Owner - Bill Bidwill
No disrespect but that combo doesn't instill a lot of confidence in them being able to put together such a dominant Cardinal team. Did a QB with the number 13 really make all the difference? Yeah, they had a heck of a WR trio with Fitz, Boldin and Breaston but would Tom Brady have had the same success as KW did? I don't remember the OL being all that dominant those years. I believe Dennis Green helped Graves build some of that team before he was fired. Was it just a perfect storm that only comes along once in a Cardinals fandom lifetime.
NFC West was in a slump
Very good WR talent
A stubborn SB winning QB who believed he could do it again on the Arizona Cardinals
I really miss that kind of entertainment.
"A stubborn SB winning QB who believed he could do it again on the Arizona Cardinals"
DeleteBless him! One would think the most popular and successful (?) player ever to wear a Cards uniform would be hired (begged if necessary) to come in and be the voice/face of the franchise and let inherited incompetence stay out of the camera where he belongs. Brady in LV, Matt Ryan in ATL are doing this. Please somebody tell the tackling dummy.