Why Ty Simpson's Draft Stock is Apt to Soar
By Walter Mitchell
I am of the belief that the more that NFL QB-needy teams do their scouting of Alabama QB Ty Simpson, the more likely it will be that he will be selected no later than pick #13 where the Los Angeles Rams hold the pick.
Why would the Rams draft Ty Simpson?
It's no secret that Sean McVay would like to nail down his successor to Matthew Stafford asap.
Given the Rams' outstanding talent on both sides of the ball, the likelihood of them being able to have a top 15 draft pick again for the next few years, gives them added incentive to take a QB whom they believe fits their QB criteria within their system.
Drafting Ty Simpson with the opportunity to do what Andy Reid did with Patrick Mahomes by having the luxury of grooming him for a year behind the incumbent starter is pretty much ideal.
When scouts go back and take a close look of the level of Ty Simpson's play when he was fully healthy, they are apt to be awed.
After a week 1 loss to Florida St., in games 2-9, which included wins over SEC rivals #5 Georgia, #16 Vanderbilt, #14 Missouri, #11 Tennessee and South Carolina, the Crimson Tide, admittedly without their typically stout running game, dominating offensive line and supreme talent at WR averaged 34.8 points per game, and get this ---> during that stretch while going 8-0, Ty Simpson threw for 19 TDs and only 1 interception.
In the middle of that streak one highly respected CFB analyst, Tom Luginbill, went as far as to compare Ty Simpson to Adrew Luck.
:"He reminds me of Andrew Luck at Stanford," Luginbill said on the Next Round. "Where the ball handling, the footwork, the deceptive athleticism, the accuracy. We talk about anticipation and timing and being decisive, one of the reasons it's so difficult to rush him. That's who he looks like. That's who he reminds me of. That's why he's going to grow and become more and more attractive if he keeps playing at this level, because if he does, look out. I just think he's an absolute difference maker."
Where Ty Simpson's season took a turn for the worse was during their 29-22 win over South Carolina on October 27, when he suffered a painful back injury (bulging disc) which was further compounded by elbow bursitis and a stomach illness.
From www.on3.com:
"The 6-2, 210-pound Simpson showed his durability and toughness throughout this season despite taking a pounding. He said he played through a building disc in his back, bursitis in his elbow and had a reaction to some medication that inflamed the lining in his stomach.
“I couldn’t eat anything but chicken noodle soup and crackers for two weeks going into the Auburn game and SEC championship game,” Simpson joked.
And then in the playoff loss to Indiana, he said he cracked the 10th rib on his left side (the floating rib) late in the first half while scrambling and taking a helmet to the ribs and fumbling, an injury that can be especially painful when trying to bend or twist.
“I tried to go in the second half, the first possession, but couldn’t throw it past 10 yards,” Simpson said."
While this collection of injuries may cause some scouts to be concerned about Ty's durability, there can't be any questions about his willingness to play through pain.
Nor should there be any questions about Ty's resiliency. After taking a 28-7 beating to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Title game, Ty bounced back big-time to lead Alabama to an upset 34-24 win over Oklahoma in the first round of the college playoffs, while passing for 232 yards, 2 TDs and a 152.0 RTG.
In Bama's subsequent 38-3 loss to #1 Indiana, Ty was knocked out of the game when he suffered a broken rib while scrambling for a first down. To that point he had completed 12 of 16 passes (75%) for 67 yards and 110.0 RTG.
A Captain's Patient and Everlasting Loyalty to Alabama
again, from the www.on3.com article:
Context: regarding Ty's decision to turn down $4M-$6.5M offers to transfer to Miami, Mississippi and Tennessee
“KD and Coach Grubb have been so good to me,” Simpson said. “I’m sure they were wondering what was going on because they wanted a decision from me last Thursday so they could start building their roster for next year. I was honest and told them what I’d been offered, but that I just couldn’t do it because of everything I stood for and what Alabama had meant to me and the legacy that I built there. Everybody would just remember me as the guy who took all this money and went to Miami or Tennessee for his last year. But I was a captain. I put my hand and footprints in the cement at Denny Chimes.
Simpson said he never made $1 million in NIL money in a season at Alabama, but he also noted that he started in just one of his four seasons.
“I know people always say it’s not about the money, and I could have made way more money somewhere else, but I was happy at Alabama and wanted to stand on what I built there. That’s the way I wanted to go out,” Simpson said.
Draft Projection:
Ty Simpson has indicated that of the 18 NFL teams he reached out to, 17 of them have first-round grades on him and the one team who didn't have a 1st round grade informed him that his pre-draft interviews and workouts could change their current 2nd round grade to a 1st.
Mel Kiper, recently when asked about Ty Simpson being a sure-fire 1st round pick, Mel said,
“He could be. Trinidad Chambliss will be in that mix as well,” Kiper said. “Ty Simpson was having a really good year. The offensive line let him down, he had no running game and Ryan Williams didn’t have the year we expected at wide receiver. Ty Simpson’s had some turnovers, some fumbles, but he didn’t get a lot of help.
“Only 23 years of age but only 15 starts. That’s a risky, dangerous number coming into the NFL when looking at the history of guys with that number of those starts. Most of those guys were disappointments. Ty Simpson, hey, he’s gonna be a first-round pick potentially, Trinidad Chambliss will be right there vying with him but 15 starts, for me, is not enough.”
Could the Cardinals Draft Ty Simpson?
The buzz thus far is that the Cardinals have been expressing interest in Ty Simpson and have been for months.
Sometimes a college QB's late season struggles can plummet his draft stock. For example, look at Drake Maye's last two games at North Carolina ---
31-20 L @ Clemson --- 16/36 (44.4%), 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 int.
39-20 L @ North Carilina St. --- 22.38 (57.7%), 254 yards, 2 TD, 2 int.
I watched those games, and I thought Drake Maye looked mentally out of it. He had lost his two top receivers from the year before and his offensive line wasn't as strong.
But good thing for the Patriots that they didn't over-think their eval of Drake Maye.
Let's look at the numbers to compare Drake Maye's last season at North Carolina to Ty Simpson's last season at Alabama:
Maye 2023: 264/426, 63.3%, 3,608 yards, 24 TDs, 9 ints., 149.0 RTG
Simpson 2025: 305/473, 64.5%, 3.567 yards, 29 TDs, 5 ints., 143.0 RTG
Note:
In 2023, Drake Maye played 2 ranked teams, record: 1-1.
In 2025, Ty Simpson played 8 ranked teams, record: 5-3.
While Ty Simpson is not comparable to Drake Maye physically, he has the talent to be as productive as passer as Maye is in the NFL
Uncanny Draft Synchronicities:
Patriots had the #3 pick in the 2024 Draft. They picked Drake Maye and employed Jacoby Brissett and a bridge and mentor.
Cardinals have the #3 pick in the 2025 Draft. If they pick Ty Simpson, they have Jacoby Brissett employed to be a bridge and mentor.
Isn't pick #3 too high for Ty Simpson?
For one, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the QB-needy New York Jets at pick #2 could decide to draft Ty Simpson.
Could the Cardinals trade back within the top 12, add other picks, and still be able to draft Ty Simpson?
That's risky. The Rams or another team could see what the Cardinals are doing and trade up in from them.
For me:
Check List of Positives for Ty Simpson:
* Arm Strength - ✅ (not elite, but very good)
* Accuracy - ✅
* Vision - ✅
* Processing Speed: ✅
* Mobility - ✅
* Ability to Win from Pocket - ✅
* Ability to Float the Pocket - ✅
* Leadership -✅
* Loyalty - ✅
* Football IQ - ✅
* Toughness - ✅
Check List of Concerns for Ty Simpson:
* Limited college starts (15): ✅
* Injuries: ✅ (although he played in all 15 games before cracking a rib versus Indiana)
* Ball Security (fumbles): ✅
Conclusion:
I believe that the more that teams scout Ty Simpson, the higher his draft stock is going to soar, especially in a draft where they are few 1st round prospects at QB. It could be interesting to see how the Cardinals new coaches evaluate him.
We won’t really know if the Cards are in play for him until we see whether they hire an offensive- or defensive-minded head coach. If it’s offensive, it’s a strong maybe. If it’s defensive, it’s probably a no.
ReplyDeleteThe bigger question is: who’s developing this kid? I like him, but not with our first-round pick. There are just too many holes on the roster, he’s only started one season, and I’m not convinced he’s rugged enough to hold up long-term. That said, he does have the moxie, toughness, and personal traits we value at the position.
To jump ahead of the Rams at No. 13 by moving to 12, we’d likely have to trade No. 34 plus our 2027 first-round pick, or package multiple mid-round picks to approximate the value of a future first. Either approach would still allow us to keep our 2026 third-round pick. That's a hell of a commitment to a kid who needs a few seasons, a top tier OL and comparison to the QB talent available in the '27 draft
I would still prefer to use #3 pick for Edge player, maybe if he is available 2nd rnd? But we still need a RT & LG too... Monti hasn't filled those positions with quality players at this juncture (OK Sweat is good, J Williams is failure, and Hernandez took huge step back after injury.). I would want to shore up those 3-positions prior to drafting another QB. QB next year has better options too...
ReplyDeleteI think Simpson needs another year starting in college or sitting behind a mentor to develop. Some of the multi year QBs that have come out last three years are seeing better success . I think Simpson is back end of first round or early second. He's developmental and shouldn't be pushed into starting right away.With Dante Moore staying in school hes going to get pushed up draft boards. Chambliss is a better pick if we are expecting a day one starter.
ReplyDeleteI guess my questions would be:
ReplyDelete1. Do you see him as better than Brissett in 2026, or at least by the end of 2026?
2. How do you rank him compared to the QBs that are likely to be in next years class?
3. How do you rank his chances to succeed in the NFL compared to the non-QBs the Cards could draft at 3?
4. Do you think any of the non-1st round QBs in this draft have a chance to be the next Tyler Shough?
My thinking is that the Cards don't have to get their QBOF this year. If they think Simpson is going to end up being top 5 in the NFL then fine. Take him. But if they think he's going to be good but not great, that doesn't fix the Cardinals problems.