Why Monti Ossenfort Should Not Trade Down from Pick #3 Again
By Walter MitchellHere are some in-depth responses to some recent tweets:
Weren't we favourite to have the no1 and 2 picks in the 24 draft after that trade? At the time everyone thought it was a good trade
Graham, this is the type of thinking that losers think. That's what was so egregious about Monti and Gannon. They were planning to lose from the start. But Nick Cesario and DeMeco Ryans had a different idea, even with a rookie QB. One franchise was passive and the other (which ESPN ranked as the worst roster in the NFL even after their draft) was aggressive.
Graham is right, it was the right move at the time. Revisionist history will say it was a bad move, but the process was sound. We moved down 9 picks accumulating an extra 1,2 and a 3rd. We then packaged AZs 2nd and moved back up to take the player we always wanted. So smart.
It was never the right move, and you still are defending it? It was never right, even at the time it happened. Why did the lowly Texans make such a bold move? The player (Will Anderson Jr. the unanimous #1 ranked defensive player in the draft) was and is an absolute game changer. Let me guess, you want Monti to trade down from #3 this year again, correct?
I want them to take Bain because I believe he will be transcendent even with his physical limitations.
But i get it we at a position now that because of the losing everyone hates monti and JG etc which is understandable and people forget how we felt in 23. All I was saying is back in 23 I bet 95% of people thought it was a good trade probably even most people saying its bad now.
Graham, no problem. Let's keep talking this through.
What compounded the Cardinals passing on Will Anderson Jr. to trade down to #12 were all the picks AZ had to give up to DET to trade back up to #6.
Picks: #12, #33 and #81. So, let's say the Cardinals decided instead to hold on those picks.
The first irony is that T Paris Johnson Jr. could very well have been on the board at #12. PFF had PJJ going to the Jets at pick #15. Daniel Jeremiah actually predicated the AZ/HOU trade with HOU taking Anderson and AZ taking PJJ at #12.
But even then, the way the draft went, PJJ would not have been BPA at #12. So, let's say AZ sticks at #12 and they make the TEN trade in R2 giving them #33, #81 and getting #41 and #72 and 2024 3rd rounder. Here's what could have been:
12. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
34. Brian Branch, S/SCB, Alabama
41. Tuli Tuipulotu, OLB, USC
72. Byron Young, DE, Tennessee
94. Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford
Plus, AZ still gets HOU 2024 1st Rounder and TEN 2024 3rd rounder.
Some may ask, why no offensive tackle in Rounds 1-2?
Here's what screwed up the whole draft to begin with. Kyler Murray recruited PJJ to be his "right tackle." Kyler wanted D.J. Humphries back from the IR as his LT and wanted no part of 2020 3rd round pick Josh Jones, who in 9 starts for the injured D.J. scored the highest grade on the entire 2022 team at 75.8. At RT, Kelvin Beachum was the only OL to start all 17 games in 2022, and he played very well scoring a 70.6.
Josh Jones, D.J. Humphries, and Kelvin Beachum were all under contract in 2023.
But Kelvin Beachum was the veteran who stated to the media the ways in which Kyler needed to mature as a leader.
Playing PJJ at RT was not only absolutely idiotic, he (2023 overall grade of 60.1) was a ten-point downgrade from Beach at RT. And D.J. had his worst season at LT (62.1) --- PJJ and D.J. combined for 21 penalties. While Beachum (61.2 at LT) was forced to fill in for D.J. What a colossal mess.
The point is, Monti catered this draft to Kyler Murray's wishes at the expense of passing on Will Anderson Jr. Offensive tackle was not the team's top priority, not with 3 tackles on the roster coming of 70+ seasons.
There Cardinals had NO bona-fide edge rushers on their roster.
Monti also wanted to make up for the night one embarrassment of losing the 3rd round pick to PHI (flipped for PHI's 4th) for breaking NFL Super Bowl tampering rules in talking to Gannon.
Then Monti became a persona non grata among NFL owners and GMs for publicly releasing the privileged trade conversation he had with Nick Caserio, which led to AZ headlines such as "Cardinals Dominate Texans in Day 1 of NFL Draft."
Everything here smacked of stupid decisions and bad karma. And it's still costing the team.
Monti has not been able to make a 1st round trade since. And if he trades down from #3 again this year, it will mean he hasn't learned a freaking thing after the 2023 draft debacle.
The Cardinals don't need more draft picks. They need Pro Bowl caliber stars.
Look what the Lions got in 2023 with their first 3 picks: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, TE Sam La Porta and S Brian Branch (3 pro Bowlers and 2 of them came via the AZ trade and the 3rd was a gift when AZ passed on Branch to draft an injured B.J. Ojulari coming off of three frustrating years at LSU production-wise.
* Will Anderson Jr. --- 81.6
* Brian Branch --- 78.4
* Paris Johnson Jr. --- 60.1
* B.J. Ojulari --- 64.8
* Garrett Williams --- 56.7
In hindsight, the decision to pass on Anderson was a mistake. However, PJJ is a top 20 tackle and no one really expected to Texans to make a post season run. We picked 27th with that extra 1st. Most experts at the time believed that would have been a top 15 pick.
It wasn't hindsight, Thom, for those of us banging the drum for Will Anderson Jr. at pick #3. Cardinals' pass rush (sacks) since: 30th, 29th, 30th. To pass on a blue-chip talent like Anderson, there has to be good plan to compensate for it. Monti's plan was to move Zaven Collins to edge and draft B.J. Ojulari (with a knee injury) while Brian Branch was still on the board.
Will Anderson (3 seasons at ALA): 62 TFL, 34.5 sacks)
B.J. Ojulari (3 seasons at LSU): 25 TFL, 16.5 sacks)
As for PJJ, as being a top 20 tackle is so far below the value of a #6 pick.
Most experts? For a team not drafting a QB, no NFL GM (and especially no defensive HC) would have ever passed on Will Anderson Jr. The Texans were the experts. They traded up. Look at how they valued him. The Cardinals?
Hopefully, this year Monti will place the kind of value on a star-quality player at #3 that Nick Caserio and the Texans placed on Will Anderson Jr.
"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it".
George Santayana
I am opposed to another trade back scenario; for me it best Bain or Bailey @#3; Monti has not shown he is any smarter at the draft than Keim was. Every attempt by either GM to be smarter was met with stupidity. e.g. D Robinson; M Melton, BJ Ojulari are ALL fails and all attempts by our FO to be smarter than the average guy on street (I was upset with every one of those picks @ draft-time). Our FO scouting department is culpable too in their failure to provide sound advice for a first time GM. You have to believe FO & Monti are doing things the way Bidwill likes/wants/desires. The Bad Luck gene is inherited with the losing gene.
ReplyDeleteI agree about the prior draft. I have no faith in Monti and his ability to draft the best players. Most likely Rallis won’t know what to do with the top 3 pass rushers in this draft, probably have them drop in coverage because that is what is mentor Gannon would do. This team has plenty of holes in addition to not having enough blue chip players. They won’t compete so might as well improve the roster for the next coaching staff.
ReplyDeleteMonti doesn't seem to be able to hit on any playmakers. One of the things that was noted was his penchant for overlooking player injuries. It certainly seems to have followed him here. I had hoped Tennesse bland brand of football wouldn't be installed in the desert. I was wrong on that account as well. His first press conference was filled with nervous tics and a lisp. I dont think he ever had any other GMs respect to begin with. As a GM your job is to put a product on the field thats competitive. This team has been the most uncompetitive unwatchable brand in the NFL.Half the reasons people want us to draft love is it would give them a reason to watch the Cardinals on Sunday.Will he make the right call on draft day? My current approach after 4 years of bad football is I'll believe it when I see it.
ReplyDeleteI am a huge supporter of the trade back and have advocated for that many times. Having carefully read your post and with the benefit of hindsight, I am still 100% convinced it was the right move for this organization at the time.
ReplyDeleteWhat is important to remember is the mess the organization was in when Monti came on board. Many core players and contributors where on expiring contracts with little hope of retaining them while looking at a major rebuild. Draft classes were mostly all misses and some of our remaining vets were asking for trades, even though there contracts were would not make that easy and perhaps even impossible. SK had the cap in terrible shape (to say it nicely) and future draft capital had been traded to fund his last 'push'. In addition, our franchise QB was rehabbing an ACL. While they were open that their team building tragedy was to raise the floor, we all understood that building out the offence around Kyler was important as making it work with him was a likely qui pro quo of taking the job. Or, at least figuring out if he was going to work at all and that wasn't going to happen by developing the defence first, which you have done with your suggested picks above.
I would say I have a completely different perspective then you do when looking at the trade and I also think you are asking all the wrong questions. If trying to determine if the trade was the right move, I think it comes down to one simple question. Before I ask it, I would like to counter some points you have made in your post. Others point you make, I would like to correct because I am not sure if you are fudging them to try to support your argument or if you unknowingly have it incorrect.
You suggested that Monti shouldn't have taken in to consideration the fact that the Texans 1st round pick could have been top 5. IMO, this would have been complete malpractice to not consider that fact. If it had turned into one of the top QB's in the 24 draft, there would be no debate if the trade was the right move. The Texans bet on themselves and got it right. Tip your cap and move on.
In 22, Humphries and Beachum were the #35 and #40 ranked tackles by PFF grades and to say they were getting long in the tooth would be putting it nicely. Josh Jones (who I also advocated for) offered absolutely no versatility as all Cardinal fan know. He was a left tackle only and and was either not interested, or not capable of playing RT or Guard. This has proven true for us and in his subsequent stops in Houston, Baltimore and Seattle. Their decision to go after a tackle, even if you don't agree and it was only to appease Kyler and , is defensible at minimum and brilliant at best.
WAJ was not the clear cut #1. There were plenty of pundits that had other edges above him and he had his fair share of doubters. For the record, I thought he was a stud.
If your logic is that we should have went after WAJ because we had 3 adequate tackles, then the same logic must be applied to Branch. Why would we take Branch over Ojulari when we had an All Pro safety and another safety on a big contract that at times has been a top 10 safety via PFF. It was the only position group that we didn't need.
The picks we gave to Detriot to go up to 6 was picks 12, 34, and 168. We received pick 81 you referenced in return, along with the 6th pick.
An interesting point here, Peter King including in his famous FMIA article his time in the Raiders draft room that they allowed him include in that article. #1 on their board was PJJ with Tyree Wilson #2. If you remember Monti's trade logs (which I agree were discussing and should never been published), he was trying to trade with the Lions and Raiders, ultimately getting the deal done with the Lions. So they knew exactly where they had to get to draft PJJ.
PJJ, who was #12 overall tackle in 24 via PFF before all the injuries this past year, was clearly the BPA on the Cardinals board, regardless of who you think was the BPA. And they could not have sent the #33 and #81 pick to the Titans without doing the Lions trade because it was the Lions pick.
DeleteUnless you have a source to confirm that Monti was catering to Kyler with the PJJ pick, your assumption could be wrong. It's possible they were building the team exactly the way they would have with or without Kyler.
As for the question, it is simply this; If the Cardinals had determined that PJJ was their guy and they were going to pick him over WAJ no matter the circumstances, don't you think that everything else is gravy?
Some other interesting questions, what would WAJ's stats be today if we had picked him? Would he be asking for a trade right now? If we had built the defence as you suggest, would we be going into this season with Kyler as our #1 QB still trying to figure out if he is the 'guy'?