10 reasons why Monti Ossenfort is not trading down to reach for a tackle and quarterback
By Walter Mitchell
Arizona Cardinals' draft prognosticators, with the aid of national pundits, have been insisting on three things:
1. Monti will absolutely trade down from the #3 pick.
2. With his first two picks, he is looking to draft an offensive tackle, most likely Francis Mauigoa (Miami FL) or Spencer Fano (Utah).
3. He is locked in on drafting QB Ty Simpson.
TRADE REPORT
According to a new report from Albert Breer, the Arizona Cardinals will try to "move down" from pick #3.
Can Monti Ossenfort swing a deal that can help the Cardinals rebound from the worst season in franchise history?
Plus, why the combo of an OT/Ty Simpson remains the favorite...NOW with !
To watch the video. click here:
It's becoming more and more obvious that the Arizona Cardinals want to trade down, presumably for an offensive tackle.
If they can't, it'll come down to Arvell Reese vs Jeremiyah Love.
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10 Reasons why none of these three projections of trading down, drafting a tackle and drafting a quarterback are not going to happen.
1. While local and national pundits want you to believe that they have inside knowledge of what the Cardinals' plans are --- the truth is --- no one does.
2. The reason why pundits are convinced Monti is going once again to pass on star-quality talent to trade down for extra picks is that he's done it before.
3. Problem is, when he did it before he not only passed on 1st team All-Pro Will Anderson Jr., he released the privileged trade conversation he had with Texans' GM Nick Caserio to the public which, in turn, incurred the ire of NFL owners and GMs.
4. The odds are, given how Monti has not been able to get any teams to agree to a 1st round trade the past couple of years, despite multiple efforts, he's not ever going to get another haul like the one he got from the Texans.
5. For Monti to save his job, he has to draft three star-quality plug-and-play prospects with picks #3, #34 and #65. This time around there are Pro Bowl quality players he can pluck with those premier picks.
6. Monti has created his deepest roster ever --- he doesn't need added picks. This year, unlike the others, he needs to prioritize quality over quantity.
7. Any GM who is analyzing the position strengths of this draft should understand that two of the weakest positions are at offensive tackle and quarterback. One main reason why they know it's a weak tackle class is that 3 of the top four prospects (Frances Mauigoa, Spencer Fano and Kaden Proctor are being thought of as better suited to play guard at the NFL level.
According to nfl.com, the strongest position groups in the 2026 NFL Draft are:
1. Edge
2. LB
3. Interior OL
4. WR
5. CB
6. S
7. TE
8. DT
9. OT
10. RB
11. QB
8. Monti is not feeling as urgent about drafting an offensive tackle as the pundits and fans are. There are reasons to believe that the tackle he wants to draft is Travis Burke 6'9" 325, Memphis, a physical dynamo who plays with a nasty streak. Dane Brugler in "The Beast" described Travis Burke as:
Equally effective as a run blocker or pass protector, Burke is quick out of his stance on zone concepts to execute frontside and backside. He uses his length on kickouts and has functional athleticism, although his consistency declines as space expands. Despite playing with taller pads and average contact balance, he blocks with intense force in the run game to widen lanes.
Travis Burke is a Day 3 pick.
9. As for Ty Simpson, why should Monti elect to expend serious draft capital on a relatively inexperienced QB this year, considering the loaded draft and UFA QB classes next year? It makes little sense.
10. The only chance Monti has for keeping his job is for the team to be highly competitive this season. Last season, by far the least competitive of the Cardinals three phases was its defense. In free agency, Monti made the following moves on offense:
1. QB Gardner Minshew - KC
2. RB Tyler Allgeier - ATL
3. WR Kendrick Bourne - SF
4. TE Teagan Quitoriano - ATL
5. T Elijah Wilkinson - ATL
6. G Isaac Seumalo - PIT
7. G/T Matt Pryor --- PHI
8. T Olisaemeka Udoh --- TEN
9. KR/PR/WR Devin Duvernay - CHI
If he was going to focus the draft on offensive tackle and quarterback, why would be sign an experienced backup QB to pair with Jacoby Brissett and sign 3 veteran offensive tackles to go with Paris Johnson Jr., Josh Fryar, Christian Jones and Demontrey Jacobs?
On defense, free agency was a whole different story:
1. DT Roy Lopez
2. NT Andrew Billings
3. DE Jonah Williams
4. LB Jack Gibbens
5. S Andrew Wingard
These were good depth signings. However, unlike the Cardinals' offense, the defense lacks star power. Monti has to know this. Monti also has to know that his decision to retain Nick Rallis as defensive coordinator has to be vindicated, or Monti will lose his job. And therefore, he has to know how important this draft is for adding star quality players to the team's most underperforming unit.
Again, if Monti were to make drafting a tackle and quarterback a priority in this draft that is two of the weakest positions in it, at the expense of passing once again on premier defensive talents --- his job is "NFL", as in "not for long."
Walt, you’ve repeatedly claimed that Monti has been black-balled (or otherwise suffered consequences that make it harder to trade) because he released a “privileged” conversation with the Texans, thereby incurring the ire of other GMs and owners. I have a few questions in that regard.
ReplyDelete1. The term “privileged” means legally protected from disclosure. Surely, you’re not claiming that Monti violated a legal obligation by allowing the video to be released, are you? If so, can you please cite the source of the legal protection?
2. Can you please cite to your sources for the claim that Monti incurred the ire of other owners and GMs? I’ve done extensive research and have not come across even a hint of this. I don’t find it persuasive to say that Monti must be black-balled because he never made another first-round trade. First, there’s a tiny sample size of only two drafts that post-dated the video. You cannot possibly draw any statistically significant conclusions from the fact that he did not trade his first round pick in the subsequent two drafts. Also, any efforts to trade during the MJH year would be inconsistent with your repeated claim that Bidwill forced Monti to take MJH to appease the fan base. That leaves only one other draft, in which the Cardinals were picking in a range where trades are less common. Finally, as you know, it takes two willing teams to make a trade, and there are millions of factors that influence the outcome. So I do not believe there’s any legitimate basis to equate the lack of first-round trades in two drafts with Monti being black-balled by the rest of the league.
3. Do you have any evidence of the league’s reaction to the Rams and Eagles releasing footage of their GMs negotiating trades and having conversations with other teams?
4. Do you consider the conduct of the Rams and Eagles to be materially different than Monti’s? If so, why?
5. The Cardinals made draft day trades in 2024 and 2025, but not in the first round. Were the other GM so angry that they instituted a hardline policy against trading with Monti in the first round, but decided that trades in other rounds to are permissible?
6. What specific trades do you believe fell through because of backlash against Monti, and what supporting evidence do you have?
7. What sensitive information was released in the video of Monti?
8. Do you believe another GM would intentionally bypass a beneficial trade to punish Monti for the disclosure?
Thanks for your feedback. I think this is a fascinating topic and I’d love to learn more about it.
Thanks for your comments and questions, CF31.
Delete1. I meant privileged in the sense that it is GM protocol not to publish a recording of the actual trade conversation.
2. I don't have specific GM sources but have asked a couple of trustable NFL guys whether Monti is being blackballed by the GMs for 1st round trades and both of them said in their opinion, "no question." At pick #4 in 2024 Monti said he was "open for business" and then said after the draft that he received some inquiries but none of them were nearly enough to warrant a deal. Make of that what you will. And yes, Michael Bidwill wanted to do whatever it took to draft Marvin Harrison Jr. But they also had the #27 pick in their pockets.
3. Are you referring to Les Snead coming out and telling the media that he and the Eagles had conversations about A.J. Brown, but "nothing worked out"?
4. It's one thing to divulge the outcomes of trade talks to the media, but it's quite another to provide the actual tape of the conversation, especially from a rookie GM who appeared to be gloating over the trade. And all anyone can see is his reaction afterward.
5. The 2nd round trades are a different story. If any GM is willing to trade a pick when there is a projected 1sr round Pro Bowl caliber prospect still on the board, especially for a reasonable value, then at that key sweet spot of the draft, it's about cashing in on the value.
6. Monti and Bidwill were on tape in 2024 inside the draft room when they were trying to move up from pick #27 to acquire a prospect they were calling "the big guy." They tried to negotiate a deal with multiple teams but were unable to get any takers. I am pretty sure that the Saints and Colts were two of the teams they called. The culmination of this was Bidwill telling Monti, "Sometimes the best trades you make and the ones you don't."
7. It's not about sensitive information, it's about grandstanding. Don't forget the draft began with the news that the Cardinals were being forced to give their 3rd round pick to the Eagles by the NFL for Monti and Gannon's role in the Super Bowl tampering.
8. Yes, because the GM would choose to find a different trade partner.
Thanks Walt, I appreciate your responses. I’m a big fan of your commentary. It’s clear that you put a tremendous amount of effort and thought into your work. One of the first things I do every morning is visit your blog.
DeleteRIP Coach Mac.
ReplyDeleteI don’t give any credit to Johnny V, he is a gullible willful propagandist for the team as long as they continue to come on their show. I think the only possible good coach could be the HC, jury still out, but the best way to keep Montis job, unfortunately would be to take Love and score points and keep opponents off the field with winning possession of time. I don’t know the two new coaches on D, but we do know the D Coordinator and he should go back to college coaching not screwing up a potential top 5 draft pick. Yes the pass rushers in rd one appear to be good but they thin out by the middle of round 2. As far as Ty Simpson, guessing he will either go at #30 by the Dolphins or #33 by the Jets.
DeleteDrafting a QB-not happening. QB is the weakest position group in this class per NFL.com's own rankings, next year's QB draft is expected to be far stronger, and Monti already has Brissett and Minshew in the building. His job is on the line, and that defense desperately needs elite talent infused into it. Spending a top pick on a QB in the weakest QB class in years would be the fastest way to clean out his desk.
ReplyDeleteI think if Bailey is off the board at #3 we draft Love. Most of tge offemsive tackles we have had in are later round grades. McVeighs straightest line to success is a run game. If he is on boarding a rookie QB he decompresses the learning curve by surrounding him with weapons. If Bailey is there our defense gets better overnight. Monti almost needs that to stay relevant as a GM.Slow developing draft picks is one commodity he can no longer afford.
ReplyDeleteIf Monto takes a QB anywhere in this draft, he needs to be fired immediately IMO. I think the odds are good this team will have a top 5 pick next season.
ReplyDeleteSuper Bowl Champs - points given up on defense per game ranking.
2025 - Hawks #1 lowest
2024 - Eagles #2 lowest
2023 - Chiefs #2 lowest
Fixing this defense is priority this season and drafting a QB next season makes sense.
The only way MO effs up and uses any top picks on a Qb is if, and only if, he is complying with that demand from his boss or at least has the overwhelming support/agreement from his boss. The HC would be complicit too. Now, I agree, he SHOULD be fired but MO can, like Keim, tell the owner he was only following or complying with the bosses demands.
DeleteIF Monti takes a QB in this draft it should be for a guy who can be drafted rnd 4 or later. The only QB I have targeted that late as a development prospect would be Drew Allar, Injury will cause him to miss half year (at least) but he has physical makeup at least.
DeleteIMO - Monti kept his job for cow-towing to Mr Bidwill. Keeping Kyler, Keeping Rallis, drafting MHJ, and hoarding (not spending) the "surplus" salary cap $ available.
With the Bain news, my opinion has flipped to take Bailey, then Styles (if Bailey unavailable). I think our RB room is already over-crowded enough (Connor, Algier, Benson, Knight) with tow signings in off-season; just doesn't make sense from a funds use to me.
So far as Monti's ability to trade down - I think he could still trade down - if he wants to get lesser talent. But again, it makes no sense. Monti has built the depth of the roster so he can take BPA in draft. The "Needs" are not as great. As Walter stated, this draft needs to be about quality vs quantity - We literally have a near top position in every round of draft to go for quality. Again, my opinion but if anything Monti should be looking to trade-up in draft for (non-QB) that quality player. As example, in my mock drafts I can trade pick 65 for around pick 50 to pick up Ponds or Scott. That would give us three starting caliber players, instead of JAG's trying to make practice squad.