Early 53-Man Roster Projection for the 2026 Arizona Cardinals
By Walter Mitchell
Try this yourself. It's quite a challenge!
* denotes special teams' value
Defense:
DI (6): Walter Nolen, Roy Lopez, Darius Robinson, Kaleb Proctor, Andrew Billings, Dante Stills
LB (5): Mack Wilson Sr., Cody Simon, Jack Gibbens, Owen Pappoe, Karson Sharar*
ED (4): Josh Sweat, Zaven Collins, Jordan Burch, Baron Browning
CB (5): Will Johnson, Elijah Jones, Denzel Burke, Max Melton, Starling Thomas V
S (5): Budda Baker, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Amdrew Wingard, Kitan Crawford, Joey Blount*
Count: 25
Offense:
QB (3): Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Carson Beck
RB (4): James Conner, Jeremiyah Love, Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson
TE (3): Trey McBride, Elijah Higgins, Tip Reiman
WR (5): Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kendrick Bourne, Devin Duvernay*, Reggie Virgil*
OL (10): Paris Johnson Jr., Isaac Seumalo, Hjalte Froholdt, Jon Gaines II, Elijah Wilkinson, Josh Fryar, Chase Bisontis, Matt Pryor, Isaiah Adams, Jayden Williams
Count: 25
Special Teams:
K: Chad Ryland
P: Blake Gillikin
LS: Casey Kreiter
Count: 3
Toughest Decisions:
Defense: Keeping LB/ST gunner Karson Shahar over B.J. Ojulari. The Cardinals will only be keeping 4 EDs active on gamedays. The hope would be that Ojulari, if on the final cuts list, would pass through waivers. Given his $1.9M base salary, the odds are favorable that the team would be able to keep him on the practice squad and then call him up to the roster, when needed.
Offense: Keeping Trey Benson over Bam Knight who has greater value, imo, on special teams. Typically, a RB4 needs to be a good ST's player. Trey Benson will be called on to prove his ST's value, if he is to be active on game days.
Special Teams: Keeping Chad Ryland over Joshua Karty. This might be one of the closest training camp competitions this year.
Bubble:
DI: PJ Mustipher (needs to beat out Andrew Billings)
DI: Jonah Williams (needs to beat out Dante Stills)
DI: L.J. Collier (needs to beat out Andrew Billings or Dante Stills)
ED: B.J. Ojulari (needs to beat out Baron Browning)
CB: Sean Murphy-Bunting (needs to beat out Max Melton)
CB: Kei'Trel Clark (needs to beat out Starling Thomas V)
S: Wydett Williams Jr. (needs to beat out Joey Blount)
RB: Bam Knight (needs to beat out Trey Benson)
WR: Xavier Weaver (needs to beat out Devin Duvernay)
WR: Tejhuan Palmer (needs to beat out Reggie Virgil)
WR: Ihmir Smith-Marsette (needs to beat out Devin Duvernay)
WR: Harrison Tre Wallace III (needs to beat out Reggie Virgil)
OL: Christian Jones (needs to beat out Josh Fryar)
OL: Hayden Conner (needs to beat out Isaiah Adams)
OL: Osi Udoh (needs to beat out Jayden Williams)
K: Joshua Karty (needs to beat out Chad Ryland)
PUP:
CB/S: Garrett Williams
Red Rain Questions:
1. How many of the 53 do you agree with?
2. Which of the bubble guys do put in?
3. Which players do you take out?
I tried doing this the other day, having teeth extracted was more fun. This is when you really see the confusion around our FA & Draft picks (Off-season moves) which looks more like a kid throwing darts at the carnival...Rebuild, tear it apart, rebuild, tear it apart, rebuild again (maybe we can have success - nah jus pulling your leg).
ReplyDeleteAs for your 53 - selection I cannot find fault (or better options). The real trick is going to come down to all those individual battles. Some players will be lost to waivers others may be retained on practice squad. Who knows we may have another calf injury of our 1st round draft selection.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteBryan A
@YoungFocusBA
You cut BJ? Huh
Walter B J Mitchell
@WBJMItch
For the reasons stated in the article, Bryan. Cards won't be keeping 5 edge players active on game days. They are more apt to keep LBs Owen Pappoe, Karson Sharar and S Joey Blount instead because of their supreme value on STs. In light of B.J. Ojulari's $1.9M salary, odds are he will pass through waivers and be called up when needed from the practice squad at first and then, like Michael Carter was, to a roster spot at some point. Do you see him beating out Josh Sweat, Zaven Collins, Jordan Burch or Baron Browning?
Bryan A
@YoungFocusBA
Brother, there is no way in a year Monti needs draft picks to start showing they are working that he cuts a second round pick. Injuries like that usually take an extra calendar year to start feeling better. Id put this at like a 5% or less of happening.
What do you guys think of Bryan's take?
I would agree with Bryan here.
DeleteOjulari had 4.5 sacks as a rookie on a terrible defence with no star power and only 400 snaps as he was working his way off of injury. His second year, he was the talk of training camp with everyone expecting a big jump and a huge year before his unfortunate injury. He was clearly getting stronger and better as the year went along last year and hopefully can get back to where he was before his 2nd year injury.
Money is another reason to take BJ over Browning if they are even close to being the same player. The Cardinals would gain nearly 5M on the cap by simply cutting Browning. More if they can find someone who will trade for him.
The biggest reason for Monti to keep Ojulari is Will Anderson Jr. (which might be part of your reasoning for cutting him). He was the edge player they took in the second round after the WAJ trade, after passing on him when they clearly needed an edge. If they can get Ojulari back on track and have him produce 65%-75% of WAJ's production, it would continue to make the trade look like the right move.
Curious question Walter. Considering that Ojulari had 4.5 sacks and 20 pressures on 400 snaps as a rookie on a terrible Cardinals team, if he had not been injured and produced 60 pressures and 9 sacks on 650 snaps while maintaining or improving on some of his excellent stats (2.7% missed tackle rate!), would that change your opinion of the WAJ trade?
For context, WAJ's second season, he had 60 pressures and 16 sacks on 645 snaps with a 15.2% missed tackle rate. And I think we can all agree that Ojulari would have had better numbers his rookie season if he enjoyed the favourable defensive environment that the Texans gave WAJ.
The question is, with as much as Monti has invested in Josh Sweat, Baron Browning and Zaven Collins, plus given the physical talents of Jordan Burch, how does B.J. Ojulari become active on game days, especially when he's not one of the better special teams options? I am hopeful too, NSC, that he can get back to the form he had as a rookie. But Monti has devoted over $30M to three edge rushers since, which also makes it iffy as to why Monti would add $1.9M more by keeping a 5th edge.
DeleteI would prefer cutting Browning and save 5M if I had to pick.
DeleteThe Texans have 2 edge rushers that are now costing 90M/year. 30M doesn't seem like much in that context.
This is a potentially very potent offense without a QB who can make it happen.
ReplyDeleteQB (3): (33-year-old)Kurt Warner, Gardner Minshew, Carson Beck
RB (4): James Conner, Jeremiyah Love, Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson
TE (3): Trey McBride, Elijah Higgins, Tip Reiman
WR (4): Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kendrick Bourne, Reggie Virgil
OL (9): Paris Johnson Jr., Elijah Wilkinson, Josh Fryar, Christian Jones, Isaac Seumalo, Hjalte Froholdt, Chase Bisontis, Isaiah Adams, Jon Gaines
Walter-I went down the contract rabbit hole on the Ojulari/Browning debate and the guaranteed money actually validates your call over Bryan A's pushback. Browning earned his $2M roster bonus staying past March 15 and carries a $9.4M cap hit — the Cardinals are fully committed to him. Ojulari's $1.922M base is NOT guaranteed in this final rookie year, so cutting him costs zero dead money. The front office is actually more contractually locked into Browning than the 2nd-round pick. Benson looks shakier than ever after the draft.Benson is fighting Bam Knight for a roster spot, not just carries. I'd flip that call and take Knight for the special teams value you already identified.At WR, Weaver feels like the more natural bubble casualty over Duvernay — he never became the downfield threat the team wanted and Virgil's 5th-round selection puts him right in Weaver's lane. His only path to the roster is special teams. Can he beat out Duvernay on returns?
ReplyDeleteMurphy-Bunting is a bubble player needing to beat out Melton, but the money actually flips that — Melton is the lock and Murphy-Bunting is the one truly fighting for his roster spot. If the Cardinals keep five CBs, Thomas V is probably the odd man out. If they keep six, Murphy-Bunting survives.
I understand his logic, but I believe it will come down to performance during training camp. We will finally have some pressure on these guys to 'show-up' or 'pack-their-bags'. Training camp will be interesting to see the fallout and whether the new coaching staff will make an impact on an underperforming roster. I do not believe guys like Ojulari are "safe" to make this roster. Regardless where he was selected in draft. We've already seen Monti move on from high draft picks for no value.
ReplyDeleteWhat draft picks are you thinking of?
DeleteEvery draft pick Monti has ever made is currently on the roster with the exception of Clayton Tune and Xavier Thomas, both are 5th round picks.
PJ Mustipher vs. Andrew Billings-Mustipher needs a monster camp to justify cutting a $2.4M vet. Billings stays, Mustipher likely PS.
ReplyDeleteJonah Williams vs. Dante Stills-based oncamp performance. Low cap implications either way. Stills has the edge due to draft capital investment; Williams is the odd man out.
L.J. Collier vs. Billings or Stills-bye bye Collier
Kei'Trel Clark vs. Starling Thomas-100% a camp competition on special teams value and performance. Thomas V has a slight edge as the younger investment; Clark is classic bubble.
Wydett Williams Jr. vs. Joey Blount- Blount's ST role gives him the edge; Williams is a long shot.
Christian Jones vs. Josh Fryar / Hayden Conner vs. Isaiah Adams / Osi Udoh vs. Jayden Williams-The draft picks (Adams, Williams) have a slight edge because the team invested in them; the veterans need to really outperform. Whomever can fits or can adjust to Lafleur's scheme are the keepers
Joshua Karty vs. Chad Ryland-They re-signed Chad Ryland to a new contract this offseason, which suggests some institutional confidence in him — but kicker contracts are typically easy to get out of. Karty is likely cheaper. Pre performance camp battle.
I don't think Blount makes it. I believe his neck injury was pretty serious and even if he can work his way back, there is an increased risk of re-injury that some others won't have.
DeleteThe 4 Bubble Picks I would change:
ReplyDeleteHayden Conner over Isaiah Adams
Xavier Weaver over Devin Duvernay
LJ Collier over Dante Stills (moreso because I think Stills will make it through waivers and can be added to practice squad)
Subtract Joey Blount and add in one of either: Sean Murphy-Bunting, Kei'Trel Clark, or Jonah Williams (whichever one has the least chance to make it through waivers)