Red Rain Reactions to Theo Mackie's 53-Man Defensive Predictions
By Walter Mitchell
We are still looking for more Cardinals' fans' answers to yesterday's questions about Theo Mackie's 53-Man Picks on Offense. The fan who wins our vote for the most persuasive will win this super cool Cardinals' football that would be great to take to the back yard, the park and the beach this summer and fall.
Interior defensive line (6)
Starters: Walter Nolen, Darius Robinson
Backups: Dante Stills, Roy Lopez, Andrew Billings, L.J. Collier
Edge rusher (5)
Starters: Josh Sweat, Zaven Collins
Backups: Baron Browning, B.J. Ojulari, Jordan Burch
Linebacker (4)
Starters: Mack Wilson, Cody Simon
Backups: Jack Gibbens, Karson Sharar
Cornerback (6)
Starters: Will Johnson, Max Melton, Garrett Williams
Backups: Starling Thomas V, Denzel Burke, Sean Murphy-Bunting
Safety (4)
Starters: Budda Baker, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Backups: Andrew Wingard, Kitan Crawford
Red Rain's 25 Picks
Interior defensive line (6)
Starters: DE Walter Nolen, NT Roy Lopez, DE Darius Robinson
Backups: Dante Stills, Andrew Billings, Jonah Williams
* Jonah Williams brings inside pass rushing ability. Had 3 sacks, 6 QB hits and 11 QB pressures for the Saints in 2025
Outside Linebackers (5)
Starters: WOLB Josh Sweat, SOLB Jordan Burch
Backups: Baron Browning, Mack Wilson Sr., B.J. Ojulari
*Trade: Zaven Collins to New England Patriots for WR Kayshon Boutte
* Mike Vrabel would have a better, multi-dimensional plan for Zaven Collins. In return, the Cardinals pick up a legit deep threat WR in Kayshon Boutte (33/551/16.7/6TDs in 2025).
* The Cardinals should do what the Patriots did with Mack Wilson Sr. by playing him as an outside linebacker and blitzing him from different angles. Coming off a devastating rib injury, it would be best for him to play fewer snaps at a position he is best suited for.
* With division rivals going so heavily into 12 and 13 personnels, Jordan Burch gives the Cardinals an uber-physical force at the point of attack and a dependable tackler. His 71.9 tackling grade led all of the Cardinals' OLBs. And this year Burch's power to speed pass rushes could be a huge factor in improving the team's sack and QB pressure totals.
Linebacker (4)
Starters: MLB Cody Simon, WLB Owen Pappoe
Backups: Jack Gibbens, Karson Sharar
* In today's NFL, if a team's ILBs are slower than average, they are going to be exploited big-time, as we have seen in all three years of the Gannon experiment.
* Cody Simon is made to order as the team's MLB. He's an instinctive thumper between the tackles, superb blitzer, good chaser and has the speed to cover top level RBs on wheel routes, something that the NFC West OCs have been consistently exploiting the Cardinals ILBs on for years. Here's a taste of how much Cody Simon was improving as a rookie last season with his 15 tackle, 1 sack performance versus the Bengals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sclYaujy5eo
* Every early 53-Man roster prediction I have seen thus far, the pundits have rookie 6th-round pick Karson Sharar making the roster over Owen Pappoe. The PHNX crew is promoting the same cause.
* First of all, Owen Pappoe is a bell cow on special teams, in a variety of important roles. No Cardinal has taken more STs snaps the past two seasons, 331 in 2024 and 372 in 2025. He's among the tackling leaders at 11 tackles and 8 assists.
* Most importantly, Owen Pappoe, when given his rare chances to play WILB has graded higher than all of the Cardinals' ILBs.
In 2024 he led them in pass coverage:
* Owen Pappoe --- 76.9
* Mack Wilson Sr. --- 56.8
* Kyzir White --- 32.0
In 2025 the same:
* Owen Pappoe --- 70.3
* Mack Wilson Sr. --- 59.8
* Akeem Davis-Gaither --- 32.0
* The case for Owen Pappoe to start this year gets even stronger --- for a 2025 Cardinals' team that was last in the NFL in tackling --- Owen Pappoe had by far the highest ILB tackling grade at 82.5 and posted a missed tackle rate of 0%.
* Problem was, the coaches elected to stick with Akeem Davis-Gaither by starting him in 16 of the 17 games. ADG's overall grade was 44.9.
* In Owen Pappoe's one start versus the Rams, his overall grade was 71.0. Hec delivered on 9 tackles (7 solo), 0 tackles missed, 3/5 in pass coverage for 25 yards, 1 pass breakup and a QB RTG versus Matthew Stafford of 72.9, down 36.3 points from his season average RTG of 109.2.
Cornerback (6)
Starters: RCB Elijah Jones, LCB Will Johnson, SCB *Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Backups: Max Melton, Starling Thomas V, Denzel Burke
* PUP: Garrett Williams
* Elijah Jones is the Owen Pappoe of the Cardinals' secondary. If the coaches are ever going to get serious about playing man-to-man coverage, Dadrion Taylor -Dmerson (slot) Elijah Jones (X), Max Melton (Y) and Starling Thomas V (Z) give the defense by far the best chance. Not only are they the fastest CBs of the group, they have the most impressive flexibility to be able to flip their hips and redirect and use their speed to recover.
* Pundits and fans by now should think twice about their belief that if Nick Rallis isn't playing guys like Owen Pappoe and Elijah Jones, then there are good reasons. By playing slower players. Rallis is basically forced to play zone coverages. The problem is --- he clearly prefers zone coverages --- the kinds of which Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold pick apart at ease.
* After scoring the highest pass coverage grade during the pre-season at 78.8 (3/8. 26 yards, 0 TDs. 41.9 QBR) plus making 9 of 10 tackling attempts, Elijah Jones did not play a single snap on a struggling defense until Week 18 versus Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Jones' line: 4 tackles, 1 miss (76.7), 1/3 in pass coverage with 2 pass breakups, 0 TDs and a 59.0 RTG against NFL MVP Matthew Stafford for a team leading overall grade of 82.0 and pass coverage grade of 83.0.
* This past season, Garrett Williams and Will Johnson got routinely beaten in man coverage because they lack the requisite recovery speed and change of direction skills. They are very instinctive zone defenders when they can keep their man in front of them while seeing the football.
* However, zone defenders in today's NFL have to bring the want-to and proper techniques that good, strong tacklers provide. What they had put on tape as tacklers last season was wince-worthy at times. The same applies big-time for Denzel Burke, who actually outplayed both Williams and Johnson is pass coverage, but was consistently a tackling pretender.
Safety (4)
Starters: SS Budda Baker, FS *Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, NS Andrew Wingard
Backups: Kitan Crawford, Isaiah Oliver
* Dadrion Taylor-Demerson should start at free safety this season and then slide down to cover the slot in passing situations with Andrew Wingard hopping in at deep third/half/middle safety. Wingard has good range and instincts in coverage.
* Isaiah Oliver and Kitan Crawford should also provide depth at slot CB give their top end speed and flexibility.
Conclusion:
Ideally the Cardinals' defense this season has to:
1. Get more physical and disruptive up front thanks to new defensive line coach Pete Kwiatkowski (Texas DC).
2. Play much faster at the second and third levels both in run support and pass coverage.
3. Abandon playing the soft zones that have made them look foolish for three seasons in favor of playing as sticky a man coverage as they possibly can. This would, of course, include creating good coverage matchups on the opposing TEs whom Rallis to date has largely left uncovered, like he did in the Rams game Week 18 after the Cardinals took the lead late in the 3rd quarter, gift-wrapping three wide open TD passes to TEs Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson, yet again.
4. The lack of weekly adjustments and in-game adjustments has to be summarily corrected. Hopefully having Teryl Austin (Steelers' DC) as the senior advisor can make a profound difference.
What are your thoughts, hopes and concerns?
If Rallis prefers zone because he doesn't trust his corners in man, keeping slower zone-first defenders is a self-fulfilling prophecy — you build the scheme around the personnel, then use the scheme to justify keeping the personnel. The Elijah Jones situation makes it worse: 82.0 overall grade, 59.0 QB rating against the NFL MVP in his only meaningful snaps after leading the preseason in coverage, and the response was essentially "noted, thanks." Same with Pappoe — 0% missed tackle rate, 76+ coverage grade in limited snaps, still can't crack the lineup. At what point does "depth chart decision" become "the coaches don't watch the tape"? The Dadrion Taylor-Demerson versatility is being sold as a feature when it might actually be a roster construction problem in disguise. If Stafford, Purdy and Darnold have been dissecting the same soft zones with surgical consistency for three straight years, the real question about Teryl Austin isn't what he knows — it's whether "senior advisor" is a genuine philosophical corrective or just organizational cover if year four looks exactly like years one through three.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest concern on defense has to be the coaching / decision making of Rallis. I am hopeful that coach Austin & coach K will improve some of Rallis defeciencies.
ReplyDelete(IDL) While I agree Robinson has the edge in starting, he should be required to earn his position in camp over guys like Stills. Nolen needs to stay healthy this season and play at least 14 games at same level he did in his rookie season. Lopez should help keep LB's protected. I would keep Mustipher on PS.
(EDGE). Sweat, Burch (with trade of Collins) sound like a good roster decision (do Cardinals need another WR? They already picked up Bourne & Duverney and drafted Love to fill SWR? You can make argument for moving Wilson as well (assuming Ojulari is ready and can stay healthy. - Maybe we can find another piece for edge or WILB positions to improve over Wilson.
(ILB) I've always disliked Wilson as WILB, I don't understand why he is listed as starter. Pappoe deserves his chance (he is going to have to earn it in camp). Simon was good not great in rookie season, looking forward to 2nd season bump. Hopefully the addition of Lopez helps keep him clean for plugging gaps. I am OK with trading Collins & Wilson in favor of another WILB or Edge player.
(CB). While I agree with comments of man-man -vs zone, & it is also apparent rallis prefers Zone over Man-man. Will Rallis change his colors? Was this more a directive of Gannon? Will doghouse players like Jones & Melton even make the roster if Rallis remains tied to his zone Defensive schemes. To double the pain of zone coverages is the descendance of our tackling into one of worst in NFL. That is a double wammy for his zone schemes and why I am still so concerned about Rallis coaching. SMB should not have been re-signed, he wasn't good when he was healthy. We must be able to stop the 5yd pass going for 20.
(S) Baker and Rabbit all the way! I think Rabbit will be better compliment to Baker than JT was. Not that JT was bad, just Rabbit is quicker / faster and better in coverage (IMO).