Mike LaFleur and Veteran QBs
By Walter Mitchell
If the Cardinals' plan was to hire Rams' OC Mike LaFleur to start and develop either 2026 3rd round draft pick Carson Beck or one of the prize QBs in the 2027 NFL Draft, then it's more than likely that they hired the wrong guy.
In his 12 years as an NFL coach, Mike LaFleur has yet to be a successful part of developing a young QB. Neither the 49ers' 2017 3rd round pick (#104), C.J. Beathard, nor the Jets' 2021 1sr round pick (#2), Zach Wilson thrived in a Mike Shanahan style of offense. In games that MLF coached as a key offensive assistant, Beathard was 2-10 and Wilson was 8-14. That's 10-24 combined.
When LaFleur became the Rams' OC, Sean McVay had previously lost faith in developing Jared Goff and thus made the big trade to acquire Matthew Stafford.
Basically, the only winning, high-capacity QBs whom Mike LaFleur has coached were Jimmy Garoppolo in SF and Matthew Stafford in LA.
The thing is --- what the highly sophisticated and heavily nuanced Shannahan and McVay systems require --- is a detailed-oriented QB with a veteran type of savvy.
Now, after Kyle Shanahan struck out on C.J. Beathard and Trey Lance (The Humongous Cost to trade up for Lance: No. 12 pick (2021), 2022 1st rounder (No. 29), 2022 3rd rounder (No. 102), and 2023 1st rounder (No. 29) ironically, he finally found a young QB who fits his system in Brock Purdy, the "Mr. Irrelevant" #257 pick the 2022 NFL Draft, a rare 4-year starter at Iowa St. Reason? Despite Brock Purdy's lack of elite physical strengths, yet in light of his uncanny ability to float pockets to be able let passing plays develop --- similar in some ways to Tom Brady. But Brady is 6'4" and Purdy is 6'1". Purdy is a remarkable anomaly, when healthy.
This year the Rams drafted Ty Simpson, quite surprisingly with the #13 pick --- and after the selection, Sean McVay was some kind of pissed off.
What about other Shanahan and McVay protégées who have been hired as head coaches? How have they been faring with their teams' draft picks at QB?
Mike LaFleur's brother, Mike, has done a nice job developing Jordan Love --- but don't forget Jordan Love did not become a starter until his 4th season, having had the luxury of learning behind Aaron Rodgers.
Kevin O'Connell has won only with veterans thus far and right now 2024 1st round pick (#10) J.J. McCarthy is in battle with Kyler Murray for the Vikings' QB1 spot.
Liam Coen and his assistants have been able to nudge Trevor Lawrence in the right direction, but Lawrence is heading into his 6th NFL season.
Mike McDaniel had a modicum of success with Tua, but again Tua already had two years of experience under his belt when McDaniel arrived.
The one protégée to hit a home run with a top draft pick was Zac Taylor's development of Joe Burrow. However, Zac Taylor scrapped the McVay offense in Burrow's rookie year by employing Burrow's LSU offense instead. Ever since, as Bengals' fans will tell you, Zac Taylor's offense has morphed into a system that caters directly to Joe Burrow's strengths.
Mike LaFleur is so confident in Sean McVay's offense that it would be highly unlikely for him to scrap it in 2027 in favor of running a new QB's college system.
In keeping the system, it is likely going to take 3 years to develop a young QB.
A host of Cardinals' fans are clamoring for LaFleur to start Carson Beck from the get-go or at least within the first 5 games. But what the overzealous fans are not taking into account is what an enormous challenge that assignment is for any first year QB to handle given the sophistication of the offense.
Key quote: Ty Simpson regarding his learning of Sean McVay's system:
"It's like trying to drink water from a fire hose."
Mike LaFleur's likeliest path to success with the Cardinals is akin to what his brother's was in Green Bay --- go with a veteran QB and develop Carson Beck for the next 2-3 years.
Mike LaFleur does not have the luxury to extend the Cardinals' rebuild for another 3-4 years. He has to do everything he can to win games as quickly as possible.
Therefore, he should see how well Jacoby Brissett plays in the system. If Brissett thrives in it, Lafleur can keep him for as long as he is thriving, while the coaches can steadily continue to develop Carson Beck.
However, if there is uncertainty about Brissett moving forward, then Mike LaFleur should make a highly aggressive effort to sign 2027 UFA QB Baker Mayfield (who once played well as a spot-starter in Sean McVay's system).
If not Jacoby Brissett or Baler Mayfield, then LaFleur should go and sign 2027 UFA QB Mac Jones.
Therefore, in the 2027 NFL Draft the Cardinals, by signing a veteran QB while developing Carson Beck, could have a tremendous opportunity to add much needed star power to the roster.
Conclusion:
The Cardinals need to cater their plans to Mike LaFleur's strengths. Then, they have hired him for the right reasons.
Don't Bet the Rebuild on a Third-Rounder: The Cardinals' 2027 Pick Has to Be a Quarterback
ReplyDeleteWalt's making the best possible case for Carson Beck, and it's a well-argued one. But the amount of construction it takes is the tell. When you have to work this hard to build a franchise plan around a player the draft itself slotted as depth, the problem is the plan, not the analysis.
Here's the short version of why.
Arizona is going to pick at the top. Three wins in 2025, a reset at coach and quarterback, and the opening betting favorite at +240 to own the league's worst record. A top-5 pick in 2027 isn't a hypothetical — it's the base case. The only question is what you do with it.
The value gap isn't close. First-round QBs grade as solid starters or better only about 40 percent of the time, and even top-5 passers hit as franchise quarterbacks less than half the time. But Day 2 quarterbacks, per PFF's research, produce notably poor results, and third-rounders have delivered essentially zero elite seasons in over a decade. A coin-flip at a franchise QB towers over a long-shot at a bridge starter. That's the whole math.
2027 is the class you don't walk past. After two thin quarterback drafts, ESPN's Jordan Reid and others are calling this one loaded — Arch Manning, Dante Moore, CJ Carr, LaNorris Sellers, Julian Sayin. You don't get these windows often.
And here's the Arizona-specific problem: this franchise can't vet a young quarterback unless he's a slam dunk. The last non-blue-chip QB bet was Josh Rosen — rushed onto the field, 3-13, gone in a year. The lone win was Kyler Murray, a No. 1 overall Heisman lock they still ended up moving on from. Widen it to every position and the pattern holds: the hits are pro-ready top picks who played immediately (Paris Johnson at 6, Marvin Harrison at 4), while the projects and red-flag gambles have been slow or spotty. Now hand a brand-new coach, a new fire-hose system, and an unproven development pipeline a 25-year-old third-rounder and ask them to manufacture a franchise quarterback. That's a prayer. A top-5 pick de-risks it — you're betting on talent the whole league already agreed on, which is exactly what this front office gets right.
The four-draft test seals it. Drop Beck into any class from 2024 through 2027 and he doesn't crack the top two in any of them:
2024: Williams, Daniels and Maye went 1-2-3.
2025: Ward went No. 1, Dart in Round 1 at 25.
2026 (his own class): only two QBs earned first-round grades; Beck was the third off the board at pick 65 — two full rounds below QB2.
2027: Manning, Moore, Carr and Sellers all project Round 1.
That's the fingerprint of a career backup, not a cornerstone.
Run Walt's own analogy correctly. The Jordan Love model used a first-round pick to sit-and-develop — not a third-rounder. Played right, the template argues for drafting a quarterback high, redshirting him behind Jacoby Brissett, and letting Beck compete as the cheap third option.
Beck as insurance is fine. Beck as the plan is the mistake — the oldest one in the sport, trying to build around a bridge-tier passer. In 2027, the blue-chip talent is a quarterback. Take him.
LaFleur doesn't have the cache to come in and say 'it's my way or the highway.' Especially when that failed with the Jets (although it could've just been Zach Wilson was overdrafted, a real chicken or the egg situation there)
ReplyDeleteThe best coaches will be able to tailor their offenses to their quarterback's needs.