Why Cardinals' Defense Should Play the Entire Pre-Season in Cover 1 (Man Up)
By Walter Mitchell
What's astonishing about the Arizona Cardinals' sheer reluctance to play man-to-man pass coverage is the fact that since 2013 ever since Michael Bidwill took over as team president, all of their head honchos on defense such as Todd Bowles, Steve Wilks, Vance Joseph and Jonathan Gannon cut their NFL teeth coaching defensive backs.
Pass Coverage Grades and Man-to-Man Coverage Percentages since 2013:
2013 Todd Bowles --- #4 --- 25.4%
2014 Todd Bowles --- #22 --- 42.2%-
2015 James Bettcher --- #6 --- 43.3%
2016 James Bettcher --- #11 --- 42.2%
2017 James Bettcher --- #14 --- 15.0%
2018 Steve Wilks --- #24 --- 25.0%
2019 Vance Joseph --- #31 --- 32.0%
2020 Vance Joseph --- #24 --- 18.3%
2021 Vance Joseph --- #17 --- 15.1%
2022 Vance Joseph --- #23 --- 15.1%
2023 Jonathan Gannon --- #30 --- 15.6%
2024 Jonathan Gannon --- #17 --- 15.1%
2025 Jonathan Gannon --- #27 --- 15.1%
The profound irony here is that the one head honcho on defense who has the most successful two-year stretch of pass coverage (#6, #11) while playing man coverages 43% of the time was James Bettcher, a linebackers coach.
Cardinals 2025 Coverage Usage Breakdown
- Cover 4 (Quarters): ~32% usage (ranked 1st in the NFL), serving as the foundation of their three-safety pre-snap shell.
- Cover 3: ~26.1% usage, functioning as their main secondary zone variation.
- Overall Zone vs. Man: Predominantly a zone scheme at a rate of 74.7%, compared to just 15.1% man coverage
- Cover 4
The Cardinals' primary defense under Nick Rallis has been a Cover 4 (32% was the highest use of Cover 4 in the NFL in 2025):
Key Strengths Cover 4
- Prevents Long Passes: With four defenders splitting the deep zones, it acts as an ultimate safety net against deep balls and vertical routes.
- Strong Run Support: Safeties line up relatively close to the line of scrimmage (10–12 yards) and read the receivers, allowing them to rapidly step up and fill gaps against the run.
- Pattern-Matching Versatility: Modern Cover 4 blends zone and man principles, letting defenders adjust dynamically to route combinations from spread or multiple receiver sets.
- Keeps Plays in Front: It forces opposing offenses into long, methodical drives by reliably taking away easy deep completions
Key Vulnerabilities of Cover 4
- Underneath Flat Zones: Only three defenders cover short areas across the entire width of the field, leaving the flats open for quick passes or outside runs.
- Intermediate Middle (MOFO): The space between the shallow linebackers and deep safeties is susceptible to curls, hitches, and slants.
- Seam and Vertical Stresses: Complex route combinations like scissors concepts can conflict cornerbacks and safeties who must pass off vertical assignment
- Run Support Commitments: Safeties forced to step up quickly into run fits can compromise deep zone integrity.
- Bend and Break
- What Nick Rallis is conceding in his Cover 4 are easy throws to the flats and over the middle in exchange for not giving up over the top pass plays.
- This is why we see Rallis drop one of his OLBs into the flat to one side, but what about the other flat?
- If Rallis drops both OLBs to cover the flats, then he would need to blitz one of the inside linebackers to create a 4-man rush. But that leaves only one zone defender to cover the middle.
- We have seen, time and time again. the OLBs picked on with quick routes to the flat or wheel route "hole shots" such as when the Cardinals let Sam Darnold and the Seahawks get out of a 3rd and long predicament while backed up near their own endzone on a matchup with Josh Sweat to rookie TE Elijah Arroyo. See the 10-second play here:
- https://x.com/PolymarketBlitz/status/1971389279411851585?s=20
- OLB coverage grades in 2025:
- * Zaven Collins: 59.0
- * Jordan Burch 52,7
- * Josh Sweat 43.4
- * Baron Browning 42.7
- * B.J. Ojulari 41.6
- The OLBs gave up 34 receptions in 39 targets (87%) for 309 yards.
- These alarming numbers tell us three things: (1) the OLBs aren't trained or coached well enough to handle their coverage drop assignments (we've seen Josh Sweat's disdain for having to do this time and time again); (2) the Cover 4 is not working --- it is not fooling any QB; (3) it's completely irrational on key passing downs to use the team's best pass rushers in coverage.
- ILBs Getting Overmatched and Exploited
- Nick Rallis cut his NFL teeth as a linebackers coach. Yet, here are his three years' worth of coverage grades from, his ILBs (starters in bold):
- 2023: Kyzir White 59.8; Josh Woods 46.0; Krys Barnes 59.2; Owen Pappoe 69.9
- 2024: Mack Wilson Sr. 56.8; Kyzir White 32.0; Krys Barnes 58.0; Owen Pappoe 76.9
- 2025: Mack Wilson Sr. 59.8; Akeem Davis-Gaither 46.1; Cody Simon 57.9; Owen Pappoe 70.3
- Green Dot Dilemma --- Rallis doesn't want to take his green dot ILB off the field, even though Owen Pappoe on passing downs is a huge upgrade in pass coverage. Yet, this is another example in which Nick Rallis does not prioritize pass coverage.
- Make it Make Sense
- 2023 Josh Woods 280 coverage snaps (grade: 46.0) --- Owen Pappoe 54 coverage snaps (69.9)
- 2024 Kyzir White 512 coverage snaps (32.0) --- Owen Pappoe 68 coverage snaps (76.9)
- 2025 Akeem Davis-Gaither 390 coverage snaps (46.1) --- Owen Pappoe 43 coverage snaps (70.3)
- Get this --- Nick Rallis, despite the Cardinals' pass coverage failures this past season, did not give Owen Pappoe a single snap in the defense until Week 14 and only played him briefly in 3 games the entire season. What this epitomizes is Nick Rallis' poor understanding of his personnel and his utter refusal to make changes and/or adjustments not only in the games, but week to week. Another example of personnel mistakes here with the CBs.
- CB Pass Coverage Grades via QB-RTG 2025:
- 1. Elijah Jones --- 59.0 --- 20 snaps
- 2. Denzel Burke --- 81.6 --- 410 snaps
- 3. Max Melton --- 93.0 --- 353 snaps
- 4. Will Johnson --- 111.2 --- 368 snaps
- 5. Kei'Trel Clark --- 131.5 --- 177 snaps
- 6. Garrett Williams --- 132.9 --- 368 snaps
- 7. Jaden Davis --- 139.6 --- 24 snaps
- 8. Darren Hall --- 158.3 --- 73 snaps
- S Pass Coverage Grades via QB-RTG 2025:
- 1. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson ---52.6 --- 299 coverage snaps
- 2. Jalen Thompson --- 98.4 --- 582 coverage snaps
- 3. Budda Baker --- 119.6 --- 583 coverage snaps
- 4. Kitan Crawford --- 120.6 --- 85 coverage snaps
- Cardinals were #32 in the NFL in covering tight ends:
- 164 catches in 218 targets, 75.0%.1,580 yards, 92.9 yards per game, 12 TDs
- Wide open 24/7/365. Watch this 10-second example from Matthew Stafford and Colby Parkinson:
- https://x.com/NFL/status/2007958924155347121?s=20
- Cardinals' Entire Defense QB-RTG 2025: 107.1 --- #28 in NFL
- This is akin to playing Matthew Stafford every week who was #2 in 2025 RTD with 109.2
- Cover 4 Conclusion:
- To make a COVER 4 WORK:
- You need:
- 1. ILBs who are premier athletes ---fast and long.
- 2. Pass defenders who can pick up the first receiver in their zone and apply sticky man coverage on him until they can pass the receiver off to a teammate in another zone which requires big-time communication (talking).
- 3. Edge players who are eager, able and willing to drop into pass coverage and pick up first receiver and apply sticky man coverage until a switch with teammate, if need be, in an adjacent zone.
- 4. Players who can keep the plays in front of them. while seeing the ball to react quickly when the football is in the air.
- 5. Big-time tacklers who will take the romance out of the running game and the short to medium passing game.
- 6. Of great significance --- a fierce pass rush that can induce the QBs to rush their passes.
- How many of these Cover 4 needs did the Cardinals' 2025 defense meet?
- Not a single one. And nowhere close on any of the six criteria.
- For all of that "Caution and Cushion:"
- 2025 Cardinals Defensive Rankings:
- PFF:
- Overall: #31
- Tackling: #32
- NFL:
- Total Defense: 357.7 ypg --- #27
- Passing yards allowed per game: 230.7 --- #24
- Rushing yards allowed per game: 126.9 --- #25
- Points allowed per game: 28.7 --- #29
- Red Zone Scoring Percentage: 63.2 --- #25
- Third Down Conversion Percentage: 43.1 --- #27
- The Eye Test:
- Each week it was the same:
- 1. In tackling --- watch how many first and second defenders miss and often whiff.
- 2. In pass coverage --- count the number of receivers who catch wide open passes without a single Cardinals' defender within 3-4 yards.
- 3. Coaches are totally chicken to play man coverage, and when they do, the matchups are poorly conceived, and the coverage techniques are consistently flawed.
- What Should the Cardinals Do This Pre-Season
- Coaches should want to know 2 things about every player up front:
- 1. Can you physically win off the snap at the point of attack?
- 2. Can you shed, tackle hard and finish off sacks?
- Coaches should want to know 2 things about every LB, CB and S:
- 1. Can you play sticky man coverage?
- 2. Are you an eager and fundamentally sound tackler?
- In all 4 Pre-Season Games:
- 1. Be relentless up front.
- 2. Play Man to Man Coverage with safety help for every snap the entire 4 games. It will not only provide valuable insight as to which defenders can cover certain types of receivers, and which ones can't, it should make the defenders strronger in zone coverage at playing man on the receivers in their zones.
- Most Pressing Question Coming Out of the Pre-Season:
- Which defenders on this team can cover the likes of Puka, JSN, CMC, etc.?
- My money is on Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Max Melton, Kitan Crawford and Starling Thomas V with Elijah Jones locked on the other team's X. And Will Johnson or Denzel Burke locked on the other team's Y.
- Cover 1 Baby!
- Because hey, why are even superstars always wide open versus the Gannon/Rallis Cardinals? Like this 10-second play from Brock Purdy to Christian McCaffrey:
- Highlights of Cover: * Man to man matchups --- if your man goes in motion, chase him!
- * Switch off and on between bump and run coverages and 5-yard off the ball setups.
- * FS reads and reacts the flow and eyes of QB
- * WILB helps take the romance out of digs and crossing patterns by double teaming and taking away the first threat over the middle.
- * When you assign a play top try to stick to Jaxson Smith-Njigba like white on rice, this game changing play doesn't happen:
- https://youtube.com/shorts/hMwAj98X-P8?si=fb4-6mNeAJjLzeST
- 1-Year Anniversary at Red Rain Blog
- Here are images from this year's notebook (cover, 1st page, last page):
- "Sagauro Sam"
- To Our Members (aka "Partners")
Great write-up and analysis, Walt. It's the kind of knowledgeable in depth film analysis you'll never find at cut and paste from other sources, Revenge of the Birds, or the good-haircut neophytes at PHNX. They won't — easier to reprint the depth chart, slap on a Rallis quote, and call it "coverage."
ReplyDeleteEvery excuse for running from man only holds if the zone does its job. Arizona gives up the explosive AND the paper cuts AND can't tackle. #32 vs. tight ends, a 107 passer rating, receivers open by four yards. When your quarters shell — supposedly the hard one to throw on — posts a 107, that's not an alibi. It's a confession.
Play Cover 1 with safety help all four preseason games and let the tape sort the men from the filler. That's testable
Like
DeleteOne could make an argument that we do not have corners who can consistently match and play tight man coverage with the elite receivers in the NFC West or atleast we have not seen this yet out of our roster. Watching the film on Will Johnson and Denzel Burke looks like they have been in deep zone all practice and getting torched by Marv. The film showing the 1 on 1's between Marv/Mike W and those same 2 corners has been mostly the corners getting beat consistently off of press. Do they need to philosophically adjust to more man coverage-----absolutely yes! Has our roster mostly been built by Monti with zone corners who lack the tracking and physicality to play primarily man----possibly. I have yet to see a corner play effective man coverage in 3 years since Monti got here........who would you play in the top 2 spots given our roster?
ReplyDeletePart of "no effective man corner in three years" is scheme: it's hard to build a man résumé when you're buried in quarters and rarely asked to travel or lock up in press. We haven't really tested these guys in man, so we're partly grading a skill they've barely been allowed to use.
DeleteGiven the roster, my top two are Max Melton (93.0, best twitch and ball skills we've got) and Denzel Burke (81.6, most physical press corner) — but I'm adding a third the staff has refused to find out about: Elijah Jones.
Jones played real press-man at BC and thrived in it, then posted the best coverage grade on the roster (59.0) — on a grand total of 20 snaps in three years. That's the whole problem in one line. You draft a press-man corner, run a scheme that supposedly lacks press-man corners, and then never put him on the field. Make it make sense.
Like. In three years, there ever been a time when Nick Rallis had what appeared to be designated man to man assignments on the opposing receivers? It's unthinkable.
DeleteHappy 1 Year Anniversary!!!
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