Upon Further Review of Michael Wilson's Contract Extension
By Walter Mitchell
Forgive me if I am a little leery of the Cardinals giving a player who has only had one superb season in three years what could be another "too much too soon" contract.
During the social media buzz regarding Michael Wilson's contract, I tweeted this assessment:
If Michael Wilson wants more than $20M a year, then the team should would wait, Austin. One stellar year does not warrant a $20+M salary, at any position. Give the team 2 superb years and that's a whole different scenario.
I see the same guys are now making the same "pay him now" argument they were making for Kyler Murray. When will fans ever learn?
People underestimate what a burden a "too much too soon" "EA$Y MONEY" contract can put on a player when, with the heavy bags come the loftiest of expectations.
That's why it's wise to give big bags to players like Budda Baker and Trey McBride after they have stacked outstanding seasons.
Patterns of performance and durability are huge factors in weighing a player's true market value. One great season isn't enough. The team has protection with the transition and franchise tags. Better to get it right than take the huge risk of getting it wrong.
Then came a reply that I found particularly cogent:
Michael Wilson is not a Kyler. In fact, he’s like the anti-Kyler, a guy you know you never have to worry about effort or attitude.
Here was my reaction to hearing the details on Michael Wilson's contract extension:
Good deal for Michael Wilson. This is DeVonta Smith money at $25M per year, tied for 20th in highest WR salaries per year.
Smith (1,009, 13.1, 4 TDs) and Wilson (1,006, 12.9, 7 TDs) had similar production last season.
Smith got $51M in guarantees, while Wilson got $47M.
Where Wilson won big-time to get DeVonta Smith money is Smith has had three 1,000-yard seasons, 5,019 yds in 4 years with 31 TDs, while Wilson has one 1,000-yard season, 2,119 yds in 3 years, with 14 TDs.
Then in trying to reiterate my sense that Michael Wilson was the big-winner in the negotiations, I tweeted:
At 25M a year? After only one stellar season? 20th highest paid WR in NFL? The clear winner here is Michael Wilson.
Then, here was my response to a poster who presented a comparison of Michael Wilson's contract to Christian Kirk's in 2022.
Christian Kirk: 4-year $72M ($18M/yr), $37M g-ted
Michael Wilson: 3-year $75M ($25M/yr), $47M g-ted
Not comparable, Connor.
Oh, but wait...
In 2022, when the Christian Kirk contract was signed, the salary cap was $208.2M.
The projected salary cap in 2027, when the Wilson contract will be in effect, is $327M.
Kirk’s APY was ~8.6% of the cap.
Wilson’s APY will be ~7.6% of the cap.
FWIW, I think the cap in 2027 will be higher than the projected $327M.
Contract details for Wilson aren’t available at this stage, so I can’t break it down in more detail.
#AZCardinals #RiseUpRedSea
https://x.com/AzJace/status/2096216580204175718?s=20
ReplyDeleteGreat breakdown of Michael Wilson's contract figures per year by Jace.
Walter, your instinct on one-year wonders is usually right, and the DeVonta Smith comp is fair. But this one's different from Kyler.
ReplyDeleteBrissett is a one-year bridge and the plan is a QB high in next April's draft. That rookie is cheap 2027–30, and Wilson's extension covers 2027–29 — the exact window. A first-round QB needs a receiver he trusts on day one, and Wilson is that guy. A rookie QB at $10M instead of $50M is also what creates the cap room to pay the producers around him. Wilson's $25M is what you do with that money. It's how Philly built around Hurts and Houston around Stroud.
$25M isn't premium at this position anymore. Tied for 20th is WR2 pay for WR1 production, and the market climbs every year. The tag would've cost more for one season with no control after. This locks in today's price for three.
The risk is smaller than it looks. Three years, not five. $47M guaranteed on $75M means the back end is a decision, not a commitment. And your reader nailed it: "too much too soon" is about a player's motor. Nobody who's watched Wilson worries about that.
The Kyler problem was never the number. It was the player.
Last, this franchise has a reputation for letting its own guys walk. In two weeks Ossenfort extended Froholdt, redid Brissett, and paid Wilson. That tells the locker room: produce here, get paid here.
Wilson won. But the Cardinals didn't lose. They locked up their most reliable receiver at a WR2 price, in the window they'll need him most, with the cap space a rookie QB creates. That's getting it right.
Excellent points, Sam! We intend to expound on this on Monday's Red Rain Podcast. Our main topic is discussing and evaluating the job that Mike LaFleur has done this far. Sam raised the LaFleur topic up the flagpole and Kyle and I are saluting it.
DeleteGotta be honest here, my head gets lost in the clouds with all of the salary numbers flying around. But, as long time fan this feels right. I thought the K1 extension was an overreach but locking Wilson in now adds stability to the receiving room for the next 3yrs.
ReplyDeleteI really hope MHJ will live up to the hype. With him I’m more concerned about his lack of enthusiasm coming off the snap when he’s not the first read. I’d sit him down and make him watch play after play of examples of him showing zero effort to block or to pull his defender in the opposite direction if he’s the first read and I’d make him explain to the Offensive room why he’s not helping the team win football games. Then I’d bench him the next game. Drew and Gannon should’ve done that last season.
Agree on your Wilson points, KYAZFAN. Marv looks like a new man this year. He's in a good place, physically and mentally.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteWalter B J Mitchell
@WBJMItch
On tomorrow's Red Rain Podcast 223, we are going to focus the episode on assessing the job that Mike LaFleur and his staff have done thus far --- what's be great --- and what's been questionable. If you would like to post your own assessments or pose any questions here, we may incorporate them into our discussions.
Had similar sentiments as you Walt, enjoyed 61 take above on the deal too. Namely Wilson was somewhat of a no one for his first 2.33 seasons. Out produced significantly up to that point by a guy like Jayden Reed (same class) who the Pack just extended 3/50M in April. JB comes on board and force feeds him and McBride while we trailed 85% of our offensive snaps from wk6-18. Wilson has 3 huge games and JB force feeds Wilson all the way to week 18 so he could get his 1k. We go 1-11 during Wilson’s spree, through no fault of his (needless to say) but still wasn’t production that impacted winning games. His career thus far is not deserving or 75M, not even close. Here’s the semi nightmare I’m seeing materialize. I think we win 4 games this year but hoping for 2 so we get #1 pick. MHJ and PJJ are playing for extensions so you know they’ll be ready to to this year. We give PJJ Penei Sewell type $ (30M), MHJ has 1k and he’s getting 30M. All of a sudden our “cornerstones” who’ve never made a pro bowl or sniffed all pro are making 85M. The same cornerstones who led us to 4-5 wins out of our last 30 games.
ReplyDeleteI like the experience and success (at big programs) our defensive line coach has had and hope to see him take over for Rallis after we start 0-4. Hopefully Beck takes over week 5 too, need to see if he’s the goods or not.
We need 10 Monti draft picks to take their play from bad-average all the way up to average-great to turn this thing around in next 18 months. Chances of that happening are so slim, only way it occurs is elite coaching and i think the only two guys on the staff who could end up elite are Kwiatkowski and Schaub. Lafleur I’m taking a wait and see approach. Hackett is a loser. Rallis I wouldn’t say is a loser but he should be coaching the LB’s not coordinating the defense. We need elite player development badly.
Back on topic. I’m dubious Wilson is a top 30 WR and potentially not even close. I don’t hold that sentiment with a lot of conviction however and can foresee a scenario where he makes me eat crow. A conviction I do hold strong is MHJ will never be a top 10 WR and taking the good and bad so far as their entire make up is concerned I think MHJ and Wilson are similarly impactful. Which is a damn shame considering the guys we could’ve taken at #4.
Fair points, but the deal still holds up for me. "Didn't impact winning" describes everything on a 1-11 team — you don't get game-winners down three scores in the third. The tape showed a guy who can carry WR1 volume, and the Reed 3/50 comp says that's just the market rate, not an overpay.
ReplyDeleteYour cornerstone math is the strongest part and I can't fully rebut it — $85M in three guys who've won 4-5 of the last 30 is scary. But that's an argument for discipline on the MHJ and PJJ deals, not for passing on Wilson at today's price. Lock the reliable one, hold the line on the other two. The scary deal is MHJ, not this one. And "who we could've had at #4" is the knife that never stops twisting.
The coaching stuff is the spot on. None of the cap math matters if the development's broken.